Investor focus is shifting to Ethereum holders’ cost basis amid the ongoing crypto market slump, with experts divided on whether its break-even level can be sustained should the market correction continue.
Driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and industry-specific headwinds, Bitcoin has embarked on a steady downtrend since mid-August, weighing down on the broader crypto market outlook.
As a result, Ethereum’s price has shed 10% over the past month, with ETH currently trading around $4,000, per CoinGecko data.
All eyes are now on the realized price for accumulating Ethereum addresses, which is the aggregate break-even point.
The metric surged significantly from $1,700 to $2,900 between June and September, CryptoQuant data shows, coinciding with the announcement of BitMine’s pivot to an Ethereum treasury strategy in May and an uptick in U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund inflows.
Since then, BitMine has accumulated $10 billion worth of Ethereum, with the latest addition of 264,378 ETH on September 22, bringing their total treasury reserve to 2.14 million ETH, according to CoinGecko data.
Despite BitMine’s recent purchase, users on Myriad, a prediction market platform launched by Decrypt’s parent company DASTAN, put a 57% chance on the company’s treasury holdings remaining below 3 million ETH through October 27.
Ethereum’s $3,000 “structural support”
Following Bitmine’s pivot, Ethereum ETF net flows have picked up steam, increasing their net assets from $9.37 billion to $27.42 billion during the same period, according to SoSoValue.
The confluence of corporate and ETF buying has created a flow-driven support level that solidifies $3,000 as a pivotal price point for Ethereum, experts told Decrypt.
“$3,000 is now a structural support,” Shivam Thakral, CEO of BuyUcoin, told Decrypt, reiterating the impact of these inflows.
Gracy Chen, CEO of the universal exchange Bitget, agreed. “The drastic expansion in Ethereum’s price from under $3,000 proves that it has become a “strong psychological support level,” driven by institutional flow,” Chen told Decrypt.
Neverthless, bearish sentiment persists, with Myriad users placing a 58% chance on Ethereum’s price hitting $3,500 first as opposed to $5,000.
Cooling demand for crypto
Macroeconomic uncertainty and renewed U.S. dollar strength have cooled institutional demand for cryptocurrencies, Decrypt previously reported.
The U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded three consecutive days of negative net flows, with a consistent decline in daily ETF net flows since the August 11 peak of $1.02 billion.
The market-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) of Ethereum treasury companies is at or near 1, making it hard for companies to raise cash to purchase ETH, Decrypt previously reported.
Consequently, BitMine is the only treasury company that accumulated Ethereum this week, underscoring the lack of appetite.
Despite near-term headwinds, Chen remains optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term prospects, suggesting that another rate cut could soften the dollar’s recovery and reignite the broader crypto market bull run.
