Ethereum trades at $2,168, down 1.58%, after the Fed’s hawkish tone at yesterday’s meeting knocked risk assets broadly. $ETH is now testing the ascending trendline on the 2-hour chart that has held since late February, with RSI at 34.67 approaching oversold territory. The $55.51M in ETF outflows on March 18 adds institutional weight to what is already a technically fragile session.
Daily Chart: Supertrend Holds At $1,977
$ETH Daily Price Action (Source: TradingView)
The daily chart shows $ETH still above the Supertrend at $1,977.75, which flipped bullish in early March and has not been tested since. Price is currently between the 20-day EMA at $2,117.82 and the 50-day EMA at $2,215.41. Yesterday’s candle closed below the 50-day for the first time since the recovery began, which is a meaningful shift.
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The 100-day EMA at $2,500.73 and 200-day at $2,821.07 remain well above. The immediate question is whether the 20-day EMA at $2,117.82 holds as a bounce level, or whether price continues toward the Supertrend at $1,977.
Key levels:
- Supertrend support: $1,977.75
- 20-day EMA support: $2,117.82
- 50-day EMA resistance: $2,215.41
- 100-day EMA resistance: $2,500.73
2-Hour Chart: Ascending Trendline Under Pressure
$ETH 2-Hour Price Action (Source: TradingView)
The 2-hour chart shows the ascending trendline from the February lows near $1,800 running through the $2,140 to $2,160 area, right where price is testing now. SAR is at $2,233.69 above as resistance after flipping bearish yesterday. RSI at 34.67 is below the signal line at 42.12 and approaching the 30 level where bounces have historically occurred on this timeframe.
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Every prior test of this trendline since late February has resulted in a bounce. A break below it with a 2-hour close would change the structure and open the door toward $2,080 and then the daily 20-day EMA at $2,117.
Key 2-hour levels:
- Ascending trendline: ~$2,140 to $2,160
- SAR resistance: $2,233.69
- Support below trendline: $2,080 to $2,100
- Daily 20-day EMA: $2,117.82
ETF Outflows Snap Six-Day Inflow Streak
US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $55.51M in net outflows on March 18, ending six consecutive days of positive flows that had accumulated $138.25M on March 17 alone. Fidelity’s FETH led the exit with $37.11M, followed by Grayscale’s ETHE at $6.89M, Bitwise’s ETHW at $4.70M, and VanEck’s ETHV at $4.80M. Cumulative net inflows still sit at $11.91B with total net assets at $13.34B, representing 4.88% of $ETH’s market cap.
One bad day does not erase a six-day streak, but the timing matters. Outflows came on the same day the Fed signaled fewer rate cuts than markets expected, and the size of Fidelity’s exit in particular suggests institutional holders were positioned for a more dovish outcome.
Derivatives: Longs Got Hit Hard
$ETH Derivative Analysis (Source: Coinglass)
Open interest dropped 9.60% to $29.35B as volume surged 65.12% to $76.44B, a combination that confirms forced position closures rather than orderly selling. Longs absorbed $144.02M in 24-hour liquidations against $29.42M for shorts. That $144M long liquidation is one of the larger single-day long flushes $ETH has seen in March, and it reflects how crowded the long side had become after six weeks of recovery.
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Options volume rose 54.52% to $1.25B with options OI growing 3.12% to $8.78B, both pointing to elevated hedging demand as the correction deepened. The Binance long/short ratio at 1.70 and top trader positions at 1.12 show institutional positioning has moved close to neutral after the liquidation event.
Outlook: Will Ethereum Go Up?
- Bullish case: $ETH holds the ascending trendline at $2,140 to $2,160 on a 2-hour close, RSI bounces from near-oversold levels, and price reclaims the SAR at $2,233. A recovery above the 50-day EMA at $2,215.41 would reset the bullish structure with $2,376 and the recent highs as the next target.
- Bearish case: Trendline breaks on a 2-hour close, price drops toward the 20-day EMA at $2,117.82 and $2,080. Failure to hold those levels brings the daily Supertrend at $1,977.75 into play, which if lost would invalidate the March recovery entirely.
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