Then, from May through June 30, bitcoin and WTI each dropped almost 30%, but their daily price changes still didn’t line up—and bitcoin faced its own specific pressures, such as ETF sell-offs and May’s first $BTC sale by Strategy since 2022.
Both assets have their own market rules. Since the June lows, bitcoin gained 44% while WTI advanced more than 30%. Once again, their daily moves showed no meaningful correlation during that time.
FRED and Coingecko data also shows that during the six biggest oil jumps of the past five years, bitcoin prices rose three times and fell three times. For example, between Feb. 25 and March 18, 2026, Brent spot jumped 67% (WTI, 47%), but bitcoin advanced 5%. Meanwhile, between Aug. 25 and Sept. 16, 2026, Brent moved up 45% (WTI, 24%), while bitcoin dropped around 3%.
Oil as a Fed Policy Bellwether
So why do we keep reading headlines about how bitcoin rose or dropped as the price of oil dived or increased? The usual logic is that oil prices affect inflation, which in turn changes pressure on central banks to raise, cut, or hold interest rates. That affects the price of money and, subsequently, risk assets. Bitcoin is considered to be among them, alongside stocks.
Therefore, oil prices might serve as one of the bellwethers of monetary policy at central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. If, for example, the market already expects a rate hike, changes in oil prices might not affect those expectations if they stay within the already estimated range. In turn, these changes in the oil market would not affect bitcoin prices either.
In other words, oil may put pressure on bitcoin through inflation and rate expectations, but over the years, that pressure has been too small and too uneven to be seen in the data. Bitcoin is moved by other forces, such as ETFs, long-term investor behavior, bitcoin reserve companies, and other factors.
‘Meaningful’ Correlation Found Only in 2020-2022
In a paper published in March this year, Binance Research also found the same results after looking at 10 years of weekly data.
“A significant positive correlation (β=0.34, R²=0.069) existed only during 2020–2022—a period of unprecedented monetary easing—and is best explained by a shared liquidity factor rather than any direct causal link,” the report said, adding that across all other sub-periods, the correlation coefficient was “indistinguishable from zero.”
The research also showed that oil price shocks increase $BTC’s short-term volatility but do not set its price direction.
“Geopolitical oil price events are more likely to create allocation entry points than sustained risk events under the current institutionally-anchored market structure,” the report said.
In either case, the first risk the report itself named—the Fed raising rates as oil stayed high—has since played out. On Sept. 16, the Fed raised the rate by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, saying inflation remains elevated.
Meanwhile, some online commentators wonder whether rising oil prices make mining bitcoin more expensive, subsequently increasing pressure on miners to sell their stash. However, this link also appears weak, as miners use a mix of renewables, nuclear, natural gas, and coal, per Cambridge data. Rising oil prices might indirectly affect natural gas prices, which could hurt some miners more.
Higher Rates and Bitcoin Price
So where does this all leave us when it comes to reading oil market moves and their effects on bitcoin prices? Treat oil as one of the clues to how monetary policy might change, which in turn is affected by many other factors. What’s more, monetary policy itself is also only one of the factors that might affect bitcoin prices.
In either case, the market is now expecting two things happening simultaneously over the next 12 months—the Fed raising rates at least once and keeping them elevated for some time, and bitcoin continuing to rally.
