An in-depth investigation into insider trading by Bubblemaps analysts reveal how accurate bets on U.S. attacks on Iran were, exposing a trend that experts fear poses immense risks to the United States’ national security.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO, expressed deep concern over the national security implications of this new alleged wave of insider trading. He warned that if those observing the predictions markets can spot irregular trades, so can enemies of the United States.
“The issue here is they can make war plans accordingly,” Vaiman said. “Just to put it bluntly, this could potentially expose the lives of many people.”
Vaiman said U.S. adversaries could easily spot the insider trading patterns and use that information to plan their own military strategies.
Luck alone cannot explain the accuracy
The warnings come as he and his team uncovered 80 bets on Polymarket that were so accurate that “luck alone cannot explain” the numbers.
Driven by geopolitical tensions, bets on military plans and outcomes have skyrocketed, with more than $1 billion alone this year. The ability to wager on global conflict creates an entirely new category of insider trading.
Onchain data showed that several major, high-conviction bets were placed days before the Feb. 28 surprise attacks on Iran, the removal of its supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire.
According to Bubblemaps, nine accounts connected to Polymarket made more $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations.
“They just didn’t bet on U.S. strikes days before they took place, but across multiplate later dates to maximize profit,” Vaiman said. They also placed smaller losing bets on Feb. 20, likely attempting to avoid attention.
A 98% win-rate is hard to miss
However, executing dozens of bets with a 98% win rate is hard to miss. “During the Iran strikes, civilians were reportedly checking Polymarket to decide whether they should sleep in bunkers or not,” Vaiman added. “So yes, governments and potential enemies are probably watching that closely.”
When asked if he had any indication those insider traders were connected to the U.S. government, Vaiman responded “we have no proof these are military insiders or even Americans.” He said, “the data is suspicious and may indicate someone with an unfair informational advantage.”
Rep. Mike Levin recently said on X that the “insider trading problem with prediction markets is bigger than any of us could have known,” which is why he and Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS act to ban contracts on war.
One insider trading arrest has been made. A U.S. army green beret, Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, made $400,000 on Polymarket bets he placed on the Venezuela raid to extract President Nicolas Maduro in which he participated. Later that month, a study found that only 3% of “informed” traders drove accuracy, while 97% did not.
Bubblemaps first made their investigation public on May 18 via a series of X posts, in which they share graphics and images as evidence that confirms the statistically impossible accuracy of the timing on each of the bets.
Two weeks prior to its findings, Polymarket announced a partnership with Chainalysis to bring Wall Street-grade supervision to its platform, in a clear signal by the prediction markets provider that it is serious about clamping down on insider trading and market manipulation.
Potential for manipulation
According to Vaiman, all this brings up other questions and concerns, such as the potential for prediction markets to be manipulated.
“A government could intentionally place bets to create a false signal and mislead adversaries into thinking something is about to happen,” he said. “Prediction markets are intelligence and information warfare tools.”
He also noted prediction markets do not just predict the future, “they can change it.” He mentioned cases where journalists faced extortion threats from bettors trying to protect their financial positions.
On the other hand, Vaiman defended Polymarket’s structural design and the transparency it provides, while refusing to blame the platform for the compliance failures.
“I don’t want to dunk on Polymarket,” Vaiman stated. “Realistically, anybody can use a cheap VPN or buy a KYC’d account. That is not just a Polymarket problem. It is an internet-wide problem.”
Polymarket did not immediately respond to CoinDesk’s request to comment. However, has hit back at insider trading claims in the past, saying that it has strict insider trading rules, AI-powered surveillance and blockchain forensics to identify suspicious activity and report it to relevant authorities. ”Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified,” the platform has said.
