About 97% of betters on Polymarket expect Hern to win, about 96% bet that same result for Hageman, and about 99% think Moore will be victorious, with Kalshi wagering showing Barr close to 94%. Those potential incoming senators would join the chamber next year as it keeps tangling with major crypto legislation, especially if the Senate continues to fall short in getting the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act out the door later this month. Every addition to the Senate could be hugely consequential.
However, they’ll also likely be arriving to the Senate alongside Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, a Democrat Fairshake spent more than $10 million trying to defeat in her primary, marking its biggest spending failure to date.
Fairshake and its affiliates — primarily funded by Coinbase, Ripple and a16z — also helped defend seven reliably pro-crypto lawmakers from primary challenges, plus backed a long list of new pro-crypto names from both parties that are expected to join Congress for the first time next year. Many of them are Democrats, which could be especially important if the House of Representatives swings toward a Democrat majority, as expected.
As with many of the contests in this year’s primaries, incumbent Auchincloss took heat from his opponent for crypto support. The lawmaker had been critical of the administration on its crypto ties, but he has often voted for crypto legislation (apart from last year’s Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act), leaving him with a luke-warm “C” grade from the Coinbase-backed industry advocacy group Stand With Crypto.
