As October nears a close, one reality for crypto enthusiasts is that the anticipated ‘Uptober’ rally might not materialize in 2024.
With Bitcoin’s (BTC) performance falling short of expectations, questions are emerging about whether there’s a shift in traditional price rally catalysts—a factor that a crypto expert has weighed in on.
In this context, while acknowledging the possibility of a failed ‘Uptober’ rally, Michaël van de Poppe pointed to emerging catalysts that could fuel a stronger bull run than seen in previous cycles, as noted in an X post on October 27.
Poppe stated that recent Bitcoin price movements suggest that the traditional four-year cycles of Bitcoin might be becoming outdated.
Historically, the asset has adhered to patterns of price growth coinciding with halving events, followed by consolidation phases. Now, Poppe believes that the dynamics influencing Bitcoin’s market cycles are evolving, paving the way for what he says could be a “longer-than-expected bull market.”
According to Poppe, two primary catalysts will shape Bitcoin’s next big moves: liquidity and global interest rates. Notably, liquidity is crucial for Bitcoin’s price movement, with inflows driving momentum. Poppe now expects central banks to continue injecting liquidity, highlighted by recent stimulus measures in China.
“This ‘Uptober’ and the previous ‘Rektember’ have shown that this cycle is more complex and different than the previous cycles. I think that this is the cycle we’ll get rid of the 4-year cycles. It’s all depending on liquidity and interest rates.<…> To be honest, I suspect that we’re peaking in 2026,” Poppe said.
The fate of ‘Uptober’
For enthusiasts awaiting the ‘Uptober’ rally, Bitcoin’s clinching of $70,000 is viewed as a springboard to a new rally. Bitcoin has faced multiple rejections below this level, leading to concerns about whether ‘Uptober’ is over.
Indeed, there has been a general sentiment that Bitcoin might drop, considering the asset recently recorded an all-time high in futures open interest, signaling potential volatility.
Other hints about a possible correction have stemmed from Bitcoin’s relationship with Tether (USDT), where the stablecoin’s dominance has surged. A Finbold report indicated that this dominance might signal caution from investors potentially hedging against volatility, an element that often precedes downward moves in Bitcoin.
Not all hope is lost for Bitcoin’s rally. In this context, crypto trading expert Ali Martinez maintained that if the maiden digital asset holds its valuation above $65,000, it could anchor a new record high near $80,000.
In an X post on October 26, the analyst opined that holding $65,000 could open the door to $72,000, with a potential pullback to $69,000 before a resurgence toward $78,000.
Despite the short-term volatility, most analysts forecast a strong future for Bitcoin. Bernstein analysts project that the asset could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025 in a momentum driven by a “new institutional era.”
Similarly, ahead of the United States presidential election, most analysts believe a win for Donald Trump could be bullish for crypto assets, considering his support for the space.
Bitcoin price analysis
As of press time, Bitcoin was valued at $67,124, rallying almost 0.25% in the last 24 hours. On a weekly timeframe, BTC is down 2%.
Bitcoin is looking bullish in the short and long term, as it trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The $65,000 level remains vital.
