Bitcoin experienced a significant price decline in June, dropping from a monthly high of $73,984 to close the month at $58,526, according to data from TradingView. Incidentally, the cryptocurrency reached its monthly high on the first day of June, then lost value as the month progressed.
Despite Bitcoin’s negative price action in June, which saw the cryptocurrency reach its lowest level in about 21 months, multiple analysts consider the price action secondary to Bitcoin’s ongoing evolution. For the XWIN Japan Research Group, June should not be viewed simply as a collapse month for Bitcoin but a period marking a transition in market structure. Although selling pressure intensified for $BTC, long-term accumulation did as well.
Underlying Bitcoin Metrics
XWIN highlighted some key metrics that exposed Bitcoin’s intricate dynamics, including the Coinbase Premium Index, which remained negative throughout June. The research group noted that it indicates weak institutional spot demand for $BTC, while Apparent Demand stayed deeply negative, confirming that new buying did not absorb supply.
Notably, Bitcoin’s MVRV declined toward levels associated with undervaluation, as Bitcoin’s market price approached its Realized Price. These valuation metrics reflect a move toward historical bear-market territory, particularly when market cycles form bottoms. Nonetheless, long-term holders kept faith amid resilient whale accumulation.
XWIN Japan noted that ETF flows, Coinbase Premium, Apparent Demand, and overall liquidity remain the crucial metrics to watch. They believe the recovery of these indicators will determine whether Bitcoin is preparing for the next bull cycle.
In the meantime, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler believes Bitcoin is entering the late stage of a bear cycle. Adler noted that 53% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently at a loss, meaning that most holders are already sitting on unrealized losses. The analyst highlighted multiple signs that suggest a late-stage bear market regime, noting that such a scenario typically forms the base of a bull cycle.
Exchange Inflow and Net Supply
Bitcoin trader and analyst Pelinay highlighted the trajectory of the Binance Exchange Inflow CDD, noting that it suggests retail investors are driving the current Bitcoin decline. According to the analyst, long-term holders not transferring $BTC to Binance is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency. Hence, the current selling pressure comes from short-term investors and may be ending soon.
Meanwhile, another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, has identified a buy signal for Bitcoin. According to him, more indicators are reaching extreme levels, suggesting the $BTC market is entering a genuine devaluation phase. The analyst used Bitcoin’s UTXO analysis to determine a net supply ratio that reveals the Bitcoin market is entering a phase where accumulation becomes relevant.
Although Darkfost did not dispute the possibility of Bitcoin going lower, he noted that several signals are pointing to seller exhaustion, with the next step being a renewal of demand, which could take some time.
Related: Citi Slashes Bitcoin and Ether Targets as ETF Outflows Reshape Crypto Outlook
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