By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
U.S. credit unions joined banks in rejecting reward payments for holding stablecoins while crypto traders await U.S. inflation data that could boost bitcoin buying.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is a proposed regulatory framework that categorizes digital assets into three main categories: digital commodities like bitcoin $BTC$91,978.21 and ether $ETH$3,139.79 overseen by the CFTC, investment contract assets regulated by the SEC and permitted payment stablecoins. Credit unions, banks and crypto firms disagree on the payment of interest on stablecoin holdings.
They seem to have secured a win for now. Senate lawmakers released an updated draft on Tuesday morning, prohibiting digital asset service providers from paying “any form of interest or yield” solely for holding payment stablecoins.
Whatever the outcome, analysts are optimistic the passage of the bill will likely catalyze a new record high for $BTC and the broader market.
“The CLARITY Act is the Punxsutawney Phil of this crypto winter. If it sticks its head out but fails in Congress, the winter could continue,” Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said on X. “If instead it passes and is signed into law, we’re heading to new all-time highs.”
Prediction markets currently pencil in an 80% chance of the act being signed into law this year.
In crypto markets, the top 10 tokens by market capitalization, including bitcoin, ether, XRP and solana, traded 1%-2% higher over 24 hours. The broader market showed strength, with XMR, IP and MYX all adding more than 15% and the CoinDesk 80 Index trading 3% higher.
Still, traders are holding back, according to Samer Hasn, a senior market analyst at XS.com. They are waiting for U.S. December inflation data due at 8:30 a.m.
The consumer price index rose 2.6% year-on-year, according to estimates on FactSet, slowing from November’s 2.7%. A lower could strengthen Fed interest-rate cut bets, sending bitcoin higher alongside other risk assets.
“A softer data may allow bitcoin and equities to regain momentum,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.com, said in an email. A hotter-than-expected figure, however, could weaken rate-cut bets, embolden dollar bulls and hurt risk sentiment.
Note that JPMorgan is no longer predicting a rate cut this year and suggests an increase in borrowing cost is likely for 2027. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Jan. 13, 1 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) to upgrade its mainnet to v0.68.
- Jan. 13, 9:30 p.m.: BNB Smart Chain’s Fermi hard fork upgrade activates, reducing block times to 450 ms from 750 ms.
- Macro
- Jan. 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Dec. consumer price inflation. Headline rate YoY Est. 2.6%, MoM Est. 0.3%; Core rate YoY Est. 2.7%, MoM Est. 0.3%.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- Usual DAO is voting on the acquisition of Fira, a fixed-rate lending infrastructure developed by Usual Labs, for $1.72 million. Voting ends Jan. 13.
- Moons Governance is voting on building a DAO-operated MOON bridge between Arbitrum One and Nova. Voting ends Jan. 13.
- Jan. 13: Off the Script with $TON, an interview series from the $TON Foundation, premiers.
- Unlocks
- Jan. 13: CHEEL$0.5610 to unlock 2.78% of its circulating supply worth $11.71 million.
- Token Launches
- Jan. 13: Fogo’s token generation event occurs.
- Jan. 13: Recall’s token airdrop claiming period ends.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
Market Movements
- $BTC is up 0.58% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $91,984.13 (24hrs: +1.91%)
- $ETH is up 0.55% at $3,129.76 (24hrs: +0.94%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.3% at 2,914.54 (24hrs: +1.10%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.79%
- $BTC funding rate is at 0.0098% (10.68% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.10% at 98.96
- Gold futures are down 0.43% at $4,594.90
- Silver futures are up 0.59% at $85.59
- Nikkei 225 closed up 3.10% at 53,549.16
- Hang Seng closed up 0.90% at 26,848.47
- FTSE is unchanged at 10,142.02
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.03% at 6,014.79
- DJIA closed on Monday up 0.17% at 49,590.20
- S&P 500 closed up 0.16% at 6,977.27
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.26% at 23,733.90
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.80% at 32,874.70
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.16% at 3.272,07
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.8 bps at 4.195%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.17% at 7,004.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.28% at 25,883.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.15% at 49,732.00
Bitcoin Stats
- $BTC Dominance: 59.32% (unchanged)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03402 (0.29%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,021 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $39.78
- Total Fees: 2.37 $BTC / $216,713
- CME Futures Open Interest: 115,255 $BTC
- $BTC priced in gold: 21.9 oz
- $BTC vs gold market cap: 6.16%
Technical Analysis
$SOL/$ETH‘s daily swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)
- The Binance-listed solana-ether ($SOL/$ETH) ratio has risen past a falling trendline characterizing a four-month bear market that began in September.
- The ratio also topped its 50-day simple moving average, one of the widely tracked price metrics for gauging near-term trends.
- The dual bullish breakout points to $SOL outperformance.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $242.98 (+0.91%), +0.81% at $244.95 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $82.90 (unchanged), +0.64% at $83.43
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.49 (+2.21%), +0.67% at $25.66
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $40.00 (+4.17%), +0.12% at $40.05
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.65 (+4.21%), +0.56% at $10.71
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.45 (+7.38%), +0.49% at $16.53
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.48 (+1.98%), +0.29% at $17.53
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.96 (+3.01%), +0.84% at $12.06
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $47.53 (+5.58%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $18.25 (+11.69%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $162.23 (+3.11%), +0.86% at $163.63
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $22.51 (+16.21%), +4.26% at $23.47
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.26 (+2.40%), +0.19% at $10.28
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.23 (+5.19%), unchanged
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.45 (-1.36%)
ETF Flows
Spot $BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $116.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.5 billion
- Total $BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot $ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $5.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.46 billion
- Total $ETH holdings ~6.08 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
- J.P. Morgan forecasts 2027 Fed hike; Barclays, Goldman postpone rate-cut calls (Reuters): J.P. Morgan expects the Fed to hold interest rates through 2026 before increasing in 2027, while Barclays and Goldman Sachs project the first reduction no sooner than mid-2026.
- Bitcoin and ether traders bet on calmer times (CoinDesk): Thirty-day implied volatility for bitcoin and ether fell to multimonth lows, with options traders increasingly selling both calls and puts to profit from range-bound prices.
- Japan Stock index hits new record on hopes for general election (The Wall Street Journal): Shares rallied on expectations that a general election could cement the prime minister’s grip on power, giving markets confidence she can push through growth-focused economic measures.
- Ukraine blocks Polymarket in wider online gambling crackdown (CoinDesk): Regulators said the prediction market was operating without a gambling license, leading ISPs to restrict access alongside nearly 200 other betting websites; the platform is already banned in 33 other countries.
