The Bitcoin ($BTC) owned by conviction buyers, large entities with low on-chain activity, has tripled in 2026.
The conviction buyers have increased their holdings by nearly 300% year-to-date (YTD) to approximately 4 million Bitcoin, according to on-chain data analysis from BitGo, analyzed by Finbold on May 13. After taking gradual profits between February 2023 and October 2025, this group of investors added around 3 million $BTC in 2026, valued at roughly $243 billion at press time.
As such, the conviction Bitcoin buyers have accumulated more coins during the 2026 bear market than during the post-2021 bull rally. However, these investors are yet to surpass their holdings during the Covid-induced crypto crash and the 2018-2019 sell-off.
Nonetheless, the conviction buyers have accumulated more $BTC at a faster rate during the recent bear market than in any other period. As such, the flagship coin could be trapped in a bear market for a shorter period, thereby signaling a bull rally in the near future.
Bitcoin price outlook amid notable demand from conviction buyers
Although conviction buyers have aggressively accumulated Bitcoin YTD, the majority of short-term traders remain bearish. With $BTC price facing intense resistance around $82,000, as Finbold noted, traders from Kalshi have been predicting further capitulation in 2026.
Precisely, the odds of $BTC price dropping below $60,000 again this year surged 3% over the past 24 hours to about 47%, as per metrics from Kalshi. Additionally, Kalshi traders see a 37% chance that Bitcoin price could fall below $55,000 again before the end of this year.
Nevertheless, conviction buyers’ aggressive $BTC accumulation could significantly lower selling pressure from leveraged traders, as Finbold reported. Therefore, Bitcoin may be approaching the end of its macro bear market, supported by the established historical behavior of conviction buyers.
