Putting real-world investments onchain, a process called tokenization, is moving out of the testing phase and into everyday business.
Citi’s new report Tokenization 2030: Wall Street On-Chain shared with CoinDesk ahead of Proof of Talk in Paris, shows that the global market for thse digital investments sits at just $17 billion today.
However, Citi expects this market to increase to $5.5 trillion by 2030 in its base forecast. Depending on how fast adoption take place, that could land anywhere from a low end estimate of $2.7 trillion to a bullish forecast of $8.2 trillion, Citi said.
As the report points out, this is a major turning point: “You’re seeing the full weight of American financial power and the global reserve currency moving on change at scale,” Citi says in the report. “When DTCC and the NYSE embed tokenization into capital markets, this marks a tipping point.”
According to Citi, three big shifts are driving this trillions of dollars move.
First, the traditional companies that run the world’s stock markets are building this technology directly into their regular trading systems.
In early May, Wall Street giant Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) announced it would start limited production trades of tokenized securities in July, with a broader launch of its platform set for October. Nasdaq is working on a framework for companies to issue blockchain-based shares with a potential launch as early as 2027. Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, also has plans for tokenized stocks.
Nasdaq also received regulatory approval to allow certain stocks to be issued and traded in this digital onchain form.
Second, the rise of trusted digital cash is providing the missing piece to make thse trades settle instantly. Standard stablecoins are expected to grow to $1.9 trillion market by 2030, working alongside digital bank deposits to allow assets and cash to swap at the exact same moment. The report expects that the growth of stablecoins alone could create about $1 trillion in new demand for U.S. government bonds, because the companies issuing stablecoins back their digital cash with these real bonds.
Third, the government rules are getting clearer, with a key piece of U.S. digital asset legislation moving forward to a full U.S. Senate vote. On May 14, the Senate Banking Committee managed to end a four-month stall with a 15-9 bipartisan approval by the committee, which advanced the Clarity Act to its next step.
The Citi report notes that the growth they forecast will happen in mainstream public markets, such as U.S. stocks and government bonds, rather than private markets, which are harder to trade and change slowly.
Citi assumes that 10% of the U.S. Treasury bill market and 3% of the U.S. public stock market will be tokenized by 2030. If just 10% of everyday U.S. investors switch to these new digital trading platforms, it would create $2.6 trillion in demand for digital stocks.
On the other side, complex areas like private credit and private equity are each expected to reach a much smaller $100 billion globally by 2030.
The shift will not happen overnight, Citi noted, saying that instead, old and new financial systems will have to run side by side for a while.
The report compares this to how highways adopted electronic toll tags like E-ZPass. Toll roads did not become fully automated in one day. Instead, states built wider roads with parallel lanes for both cash and automated drivers, which added extra cost and confusion before everyone eventually switched over to the fully automated system.
Ultimately, this new setup will give a major advantage to “Structural Orchestrators”. These are the specific big banks and investment firms that control both the real assets and the digital cash rails used to pay for them, allowing them to handle the entire trade inside their own network.
