The base-case scenario carries a 50% probability and projects Bitcoin trading between $90,000 and $98,000 by October 31. This outlook reflects continued institutional accumulation, stable market sentiment, and Bitcoin’s historical tendency to perform well in October.
Meanwhile, the bullish scenario gives Bitcoin a 25% chance of reaching between $105,000 and $120,000. Such a move would require sustained ETF inflows, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and a breakout above key resistance levels.
ChatGPT noted that Bitcoin’s ability to hold most of its recent gains after reaching an eight-month high suggests underlying demand remains strong.
According to the forecast, the most important resistance level is around $90,000. A decisive breakout above that area could open the door to a move toward six figures and increase the probability of the bullish $105,000 to $120,000 scenario.
On the downside, the $82,000 to $84,000 range remains a key support zone. A sustained break below those levels could weaken momentum and increase the likelihood of a deeper correction.
Why Bitcoin could benefit from Uptober
October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, leading crypto investors to refer to the period as “Uptober.” Several past market cycles have seen Bitcoin deliver outsized gains during the month, although the trend has not been consistent every year.
This year’s setup differs from previous cycles because institutional participation is playing a larger role in price action.
Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have reached their highest levels of 2026, helping support the asset near the $85,000 mark. At the same time, large institutional buyers have continued accumulating Bitcoin, reinforcing bullish sentiment heading into October.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $84,917, up about 1% in the past 24 hours and 5.5% over the last week.
Bitcoin also remains technically strong, trading well above its 50-day SMA of $75,728 and 200-day SMA of $71,032, indicating that both the medium- and long-term trends remain firmly bullish.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI of 64.99 points to healthy buying momentum without entering overbought territory. With the RSI still below 70, Bitcoin has room for further upside while avoiding immediate signs of market exhaustion.
Featured image via Shutterstock
