Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya says Bitcoin’s historical halving cycles continue to point toward significant long-term upside. While discussing Bitcoin’s past performance, he argued that each halving has been followed by a period of consolidation before a powerful expansion phase takes over.
According to Chamath, the current cycle is following a pattern that investors have seen before, with Bitcoin still moving through the post-halving phase that has historically preceded major rallies.
Bitcoin’s Halving Pattern Remains Intact
Chamath explained that Bitcoin investors often spend the first few months after a halving trying to understand the market’s new supply dynamics.
However, the biggest gains have typically come later.
“Within six months to a year and 18 months of these things, there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen.” He said.
Looking at previous cycles, Bitcoin gained roughly 45x after the first halving, nearly 28x after the second, and around 8x after the third over 18 months.
While returns have gradually decreased as Bitcoin has matured, the gains remain substantial compared to most traditional assets.
ETFs Add a New Variable
Chamath also pointed to a major difference in this cycle: spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“The other thing that’s happened is we’ve commercialized Bitcoin,” he said.
In his view, ETFs have opened the door for a much larger group of investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through traditional financial markets. That additional demand did not exist during previous halving cycles.
As a result, Bitcoin now has both the historical tailwind of reduced supply and a growing institutional demand channel.
The Math Behind the $1.14 Million Figure
Chamath applied the average returns from Bitcoin’s second and third halving cycles to the current market structure.
Using those historical averages, the model produced a theoretical valuation of roughly $1.14 million per Bitcoin.
At the same time, he warned against treating the number as a forecast.
“These are just averages. They’re by no means predictions,” Chamath said.
Bitcoin’s Role Beyond Speculation
Chamath also discussed Bitcoin’s potential place in the future financial system.
He said some countries may eventually use a dual-currency framework, relying on local currencies for everyday spending while using Bitcoin for preserving value over longer periods.
“When you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value, you’ll use something like BTC,” he said.
For Chamath, Bitcoin’s growing adoption, combined with its fixed supply and expanding institutional access, continues to strengthen the long-term case for the asset as it moves through another halving cycle.
