After finding support around $1.5K earlier this month, Ethereum has managed to stage a modest recovery. However, the asset remains positioned below critical technical barriers, and sentiment metrics indicate that buyers have not yet regained control of the market. The latter specifically shows a lack of strong institutional demand, suggesting that recovery attempts could face considerable headwinds.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, $ETH remains firmly inside the large descending channel that has guided price action lower for several months. The asset recently broke below the important $1.85K support area, which has now flipped into resistance. The breakdown accelerated selling pressure toward the major demand zone at roughly $1.5K. This area, coinciding with the mid-line of the channel, has successfully halted the decline so far, producing a relief bounce back toward the $1.8K region.
However, the asset was rejected from the $1.8k zone, and the broader structure remains bearish as $ETH continues to trade below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are sloping downward in the $2.1K-$2.4K range.
The former support zone around $2K now represents the most significant resistance cluster overhead. A recovery into that area would likely attract fresh selling interest unless accompanied by a decisive breakout above the descending channel.
Yet, as long as $ETH remains below $1.85K and beneath the channel resistance, the prevailing trend favors sellers. A decline from current levels could expose the $1.5K support region once again, while a breakdown below that demand zone would open the door for a deeper drop toward the lower boundary of the channel below the $1.2K mark.
$ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour timeframe shows a clearer picture. Following the sharp selloff into the $1.5K support area, $ETH formed a rising channel and began carving out higher lows. This recovery structure allowed price to rebound toward the $1.8K resistance zone, where sellers quickly regained control and pushed the asset back lower.
The rejection from that resistance area confirms its importance in the near term. Since then, $ETH has broken below the ascending channel and is consolidating around $1.7K. The RSI also currently hovers around neutral territory, indicating that bearish momentum has eased but has not yet shifted decisively in favor of buyers.
Immediate support remains at $1.5K, which served as the origin of the recent bounce. Yet, if the measured move of the broken ascending channel plays out, the market could drop well below this zone. On the upside, buyers must still reclaim the $1.8K resistance region to generate stronger recovery momentum. Yet, as things stand, the overall bearish sentiment is still dominant.
Sentiment Analysis
The Coinbase Premium Index continues to provide a bearish signal for Ethereum. This metric measures the price difference between $ETH traded on Coinbase and other major exchanges, often serving as a proxy for U.S. institutional and spot demand. Positive readings generally indicate stronger buying activity from Coinbase participants, while negative readings suggest weaker demand and increased selling pressure.
The latest data shows the Coinbase Premium Index remaining predominantly below zero, with recent readings approaching -0.1. This marks one of the weakest periods of Coinbase demand seen since the beginning of last year. Notably, the deterioration in the premium has occurred alongside $ETH’s price decline, which reinforces the view that U.S.-based investors have not yet returned aggressively to the market.
Historically, sustained recoveries in Ethereum have often been accompanied by persistent positive premium readings. Until the metric can reclaim and hold above the neutral line, order flow suggests that rallies may continue to face selling pressure rather than broad-based accumulation.
