A key Bitcoin (BTC) momentum indicator that had previously signaled a breakout towards $70,000 has turned lower, coinciding with former US President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war rhetoric.
Bitcoin’s Fundamental Momentum Indicator Turns Bearish Amid Trump’s Trade War Rhetoric
While the indicator’s change is not a cause for concern, macroeconomic factors could create volatility in the market in the coming weeks.
MACD Turns Negative, But Bitcoin Maintains Key Range
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, a widely used technical analysis tool to measure trend strength and changes, has turned negative on Bitcoin’s weekly chart.
The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-week moving average of BTC’s price from its 12-week moving average, with a signal line being calculated as the MACD’s nine-week moving average. When the MACD histogram crosses above zero, it indicates bullish momentum, and when it crosses below zero, it indicates bearish pressure.
Bitcoin’s MACD first turned positive in mid-October, signaling a rally toward $100,000. However, the recent crossover below zero suggests that momentum is waning.
Despite this, BTC remains stuck in a wider trading range between $90,000 and $100,000, with recent price action consolidating between $95,000 and $100,000. The lack of a clear breakout diminishes the immediate impact of the bearish MACD signal.
While technical indicators alone do not determine price movements, macroeconomic conditions can increase BTC’s downside risks. In the foreground is Trump’s new tariff move, which is already starting to affect market expectations.
- Trump has announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports and is expected to impose additional duties on other metals later this week.
- Trump also hinted at higher tariffs on European Union goods, which UBS analysts warned could further disrupt global trade.
- The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed inflation expectations rose to 4.3% in February from 3.3% in January, the highest level since November 2023.
*This is not investment advice.
