On-chain data has confirmed that June was a painful month for bitcoin ($BTC), but beyond the price weakness, both spot demand and institutional flows faltered. Due to last month’s performance, there is speculation that the market may be nearing a cyclical bottom, but this remains unconfirmed.
In the meantime, analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex revealed in this week’s Bitfinex Alpha that historical data suggests that July could be better for $BTC. However, a seasonality dynamic will not be able to sustain a recovery for $BTC this month – the asset needs sustained spot and institutional demand.
Worst June in 4 Years
$BTC fell to a fresh cycle low of $57,800 last month, marking the worst June since 2022 and the second-worst since 2013. Analysts say this dump was intensified by waning STRC demand and six consecutive weeks of outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the longest since their launch. The decline to $58,000 marked a 54.15% plunge from current cycle highs, and $BTC ended June down 20.48%.
“June’s downside was likely deepened by the failure of both principal demand engines: waning STRC demand and ETF outflows that represented the worst streak on record. The month closed down 20.48 percent from its monthly open, far below the seasonal median of negative 1.5 percent. That sharp deviation left the market technically oversold heading into July,” analysts explained.
With $BTC reclaiming the $60,000 level on July 1, market experts believe the plunge may have been a failed breakdown rather than a sustained leg lower. Additionally, the rebound indicated that spot demand had begun to return at marginal lows. Although the current setup supports a positive seasonality for July, only the return of stronger demand, particularly through renewed ETF inflows, will sustain recovery.
Will July Be Better?
In prior bear markets, June and November have been the weakest months, so July has historically been firmer. This month posted double-digit gains in 2018 and 2022 bear cycles. However, analysts believe it is too early to tell if the cycle lows are in. The stage for broader sustainable recovery is only set if the demand engines are repaired.
“Seasonality supports the current setup but will not drive it,” analysts stated.
Interestingly, the ETF market has witnessed a reprieve from the bearish regime – $223.5 million on July 2. However, analysts insist that one session of inflows is insufficient to reverse the damage from six weeks of outflows.
