Following a period of speculation-driven surges, bitcoin ($BTC) appears to be rallying due to spot demand. Within a short time, spot demand metrics have shifted from contraction to growth. This development comes as the crypto market digests U.S. economic data.
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the ongoing bitcoin breakout reflects a widening gap between historical information about the U.S. economy and rapidly deteriorating sentiment evident in consumer data. This macro dynamic is significantly affecting risk assets like $BTC and driving their prices higher.
$BTC Sees Structural Improvement
Since the beginning of April, the crypto market capitalization has risen by $200 billion, following a 12% $BTC rally that led to the strongest monthly performance in a year. By early May, $BTC had broken above $80,000 – a level not touched since January 31. The move cleared the $78,000–$79,000, which had a dense overhead supply zone. Although the digital asset traded around $80,900 at the time of writing, the rally pushed it close to $83,000.
Bitfinex analysts have stated that the move marked a structural improvement and shifted $BTC above a major aggregate cost-basis level near $79,800. This price doubles as the True Market Mean, which $BTC has now reclaimed.
The most interesting part of this rally is that it was driven by aggressive spot demand. CryptoPotato reported last week that the market was not positioned for a surge above $80,000 due to weak demand.
Spot Demand Recovers
On-chain data shows that spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) rose sharply after May 8, reflecting buyers absorbing supply at premium levels. Additionally, order books moved from bid-skewed to more neutral. Spot demand has stemmed from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and from open-market accumulation.
As of two weeks ago, Michael Saylor’s Strategy was also a major driver of spot demand. However, there is less momentum from the company’s end because the purchases have been linked to the yield-bearing product, STRC. Unfortunately, the stock has not traded at or above its $100 par value, which is a threshold required for Strategy to purchase more $BTC. In fact, the business intelligence entity is even looking to sell some of its bitcoins.
Nevertheless, conviction buyers, who are entities that accumulate $BTC and rarely sell regardless of price, have increased their holdings. Analysts say they currently hold roughly 4 million $BTC, following their largest surge since the COVID-19 crash. Historical data show that such growth from this cohort often precedes major price recoveries.
