Bitcoin price reclaims $65K as peace trade lifts risk assets

Bitcoin price climbed back above $65,000 on July 27 as the pause in US-Iran strikes drove oil lower and restored demand for risk assets.

Bitcoin price rises as US-Iran strikes pause

Bitcoin was trading at $65,386 at the time of the July 27 chart, nearly unchanged for the day after moving between $64,892 and $65,744. The latest advance extended its recovery from the July 25 low near $63,700.

The immediate catalyst came from the Middle East, where the United States and Iran refrained from attacking each other for a third consecutive day. Regional mediators reported progress toward an interim ceasefire, although Washington and Tehran had not resumed direct negotiations. AP reported that Iran and Oman were also discussing how to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices fell sharply as the pause reduced fears of a prolonged supply disruption. Brent crude dropped 6.5% to $90.45, while the weaker oil outlook supported stocks, cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive markets. Bitcoin rose to about $65,155 during the session.

Lower energy prices can reduce near-term inflation pressure, a factor that matters for US crypto investors ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 policy meeting. However, futures markets still assigned a 33% probability to a rate increase, up from 16% a week earlier, Reuters reported.

The geopolitical risk has also not disappeared. Iran’s foreign ministry said Tehran had not requested renewed talks with Washington and reported no change in the status of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a separate Reuters report.

Bitcoin indicators favor another test of $67,181

Bitcoin remains inside an ascending parallel channel on the 4-hour chart. The lower boundary now passes through approximately $64,000, while the upper trendline approaches the $67,800-$68,000 region.

$BTC rebounded from the lower trendline on July 25 and moved back above $65,000, preserving the pattern of higher lows established at the beginning of July. The channel therefore remains valid unless sellers force a 4-hour close below the rising support.

Momentum indicators have also improved. The 4-hour relative strength index rose to 58.64 from below 40, placing it above its moving average of 47.45 without entering overbought territory.

The moving average convergence divergence indicator completed a bullish crossover. Its histogram increased to 141.34, showing that positive momentum was rebuilding after the July 21-25 pullback.

Daily indicators are less decisive but still lean constructive. The Aroon Up reading stood at 57.14%, while Aroon Down fell to zero, showing that recent highs carried more weight than recent lows. Chaikin Money Flow remained positive at 0.04, indicating modest net buying pressure rather than aggressive capital inflows.

Bitcoin must now close above the daily resistance at $67,181 to leave its current consolidation range. That level rejected the July 21 advance and sits close to the upper boundary of the 4-hour channel.

Liquidation heatmap puts $68,000 within reach

The three-day CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows that Bitcoin cleared several leveraged clusters between $64,500 and $65,300 during its rebound. The move likely forced some short positions to close, adding buy orders to the rally.

Further liquidation bands appear between $65,800 and $66,600. A sustained move above the latest intraday high of $65,744 could draw price toward these positions before $BTC challenges $67,181.

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows also identified $68,000 as a possible target if US lawmakers make progress on the CLARITY Act.

“Any chance of it moving forward could send Bitcoin to $68,000 soon,” Pillows wrote.

That target broadly matches the upper boundary of the ascending channel. However, the policy catalyst remains uncertain. Polymarket traders placed the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at about 38% as of July 27, with $2.8 million wagered on the market.

US spot Bitcoin ETF demand also remains uneven. The funds recorded $33 million in net inflows after three weeks of weaker activity, but SoSoValue data showed a $240.08 million net outflow on July 24. The mixed flows suggest institutional demand has improved without confirming a sustained reversal.

$BTC risks a return to $63,000 if support fails

The bullish setup would weaken if Bitcoin loses the channel floor near $64,000. The daily chart places the broader range support at $61,506, leaving room for a deeper decline if the current higher-low structure breaks.

The liquidation heatmap identifies the strongest downside clusters between $63,000 and $63,500. These bright bands could attract price if weekend gains unwind or tensions between the US and Iran return.

According to crypto analyst Lennaert Snyder, weekend Bitcoin rallies are often retraced. He is watching for a possible short setup after a sweep of recent highs, with $63,700 as the initial downside target. Snyder identified the $60,000 region as his first preferred area for a potential long position if the correction deepens.

For the bullish case, Bitcoin needs to defend $64,000 and break $67,181. That would expose $68,000, where the channel ceiling and analyst target converge. A rejection followed by a move below $64,000 would instead put $63,500, $61,506, and eventually $60,000 back in focus.