Has the market really not bottomed yet?
Looking at post-halving cycles, this idea actually carries some weight. In both 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin [$BTC] tended to bottom around 875 to 917 days after the halving. That timing lines up pretty closely with the big drawdowns we saw, about 73% in the 2018 cycle and around 64% in 2022.
If that pattern holds, it would suggest we might still be early in the current cycle. From the technical standpoint, we’re only about 750 days into the 2024 halving cycle, which could mean the true bottom hasn’t formed yet. So the real question is: Are we still due for a deeper correction before the next major leg up?
Looking at how the market is shaping up in May, the thesis gets a bit more weight.
In March and April, Bitcoin has already posted close to 15% total upside. But some traders think that momentum could cool off this month, since $BTC has rarely managed three straight strong monthly closes in past bear-like phases. And based on post-halving cycle behavior, Bitcoin could still be sitting in that “in-between” zone, despite the strong Q2 run so far.
That said, looking back at previous halving cycles, there’s a key divergence.
Unlike the 2017 cycle’s 1300%+ rally and the 2021 cycle’s 60% move, the 2025 leg actually closed down around -6.3%. Normally, post-halving phases tend to kick off strong scarcity-driven upside, but this cycle has already shown some deviation from that pattern. Which raises the bigger question: Will the 2026 cycle diverge from the typical 2018 and 2022-style bear market structure?
Bitcoin enters a supply-tight phase as whales quietly accumulate
Zooming out, Bitcoin’s 2026 cycle is still down 7.5%, broadly in line with typical post-halving behavior.
But zooming in, on-chain data is showing a different picture. Accumulation signals remain strong, with whale spot trade sizes trending higher, suggesting larger players are steadily absorbing supply on dips. Meanwhile, capitulation signals are fading, as Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss metric has flipped back into positive territory, hinting that market positioning is starting to stabilize underneath the surface.
Notably, institutional flows reinforce this trend further. Despite two days of outflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have still logged six straight weeks of net inflows, marking their longest streak since August 2025. What’s more, around 78.3% of $BTC supply now sits with long-term holders, up from 74.1% earlier in the cycle. That 4.2 percentage-point shift equals 830,000 $BTC moving from short-term traders into long-term wallets.
Taken together, on-chain data points to a supply squeeze quietly building under the surface.
From a technical view, the timing looks interesting. Bitcoin is moving sideways around $80k, a structure that is favoring the bulls as supply gets absorbed during consolidation. If this trend holds, the developing supply shock could set up a bear trap, potentially breaking away from earlier post-halving patterns.
In turn, this could flip May’s bearish positioning on its head, opening the door for a bullish shift and increasing the chances that the market bottom may already be in.
Final Summary
- Historical post-halving trends suggest Bitcoin may not have fully bottomed yet.
- Whale accumulation and strong ETF inflows hint that a supply squeeze could turn bearish sentiment into a bullish move.
