August has not been kind to Bitcoin [$BTC]. Since 2022, each August has seen an average Bitcoin drawdown of 19.38%. If history were to repeat, that would mean $BTC could fall to the $51.9k level or even lower.
Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez demonstrated this fact in a post on X.
Coinbase analysts observed that the leading crypto was transitioning from a bear market phase into an accumulation phase. Though the valuation was compressed, the macro backdrop was “hawkish” due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and selling from prominent digital asset treasuries.
Record volume of realized losses in this Bitcoin bear market phase
The Bitcoin realized loss metric’s 30-day moving average showed a record loss in February 2026, wrote crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr.
A realized loss peak of $1.37 billion, the highest in the metric’s available history, was 19% higher than the June 2022 cycle peak of $1.15 billion.
With a current reading of $597 million, the realized loss has declined by 56.5%. The cycle low $BTC price of $58.5k in late June recorded a profit-to-loss ratio of 0.26. In 2022, this ratio had fallen to 0.13.
Therefore, the realized loss has reached a record high in amplitude, but when considering profit-to-loss, the relative market stress has been less this cycle.
The analyst concluded that it is too early to look at these record realized losses and conclude that the worst of the capitulation is behind us. It would only be clear in hindsight, when a bull run begins and the bear and accumulation phase end without a sharper sell-off.
Bitcoin long-term holder accumulation at six-year high
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci used the LTH net position change metric to show that it had reached the highest level in six years. On the 24th of May, 2026, the metric reached 1.29 million $BTC/30 days, surpassing the August 2017 record.
Accumulation at such a level from long-term holders was a sign of firm conviction.
The analyst clarified that this fact alone isn’t enough to say that the bull market is back. It is, however, a strong positive sign in a market beleaguered by sellers.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin has posted losses in August of each of the previous four years, and a similar drop could take prices to $52k.
- Realized losses reached record highs, but the long-term holder accumulation levels surpassed the August 2017 record.
