Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin is once again following its well-known four-year market cycle. This is happening despite many traders dismissing the idea earlier this year.
According to Cowen, investors shouldn’t ignore historical patterns simply because they seem too predictable. He argues that every market goes through periods of optimism, fear, corrections, and recovery, and Bitcoin is no different.
He also says investors should be willing to admit when a market thesis proves wrong. Instead of fighting the data, investors should adapt their strategies.
2026 Looks Strikingly Similar to 2018
According to him, Bitcoin is following a price pattern similar to the 2018 bear market. He noted that both cycles saw a bottom in February and then a short recovery. Afterward, there was another drop to a new low in June, and a rebound starting in early July. Cowen further added that Bitcoin bottomed near $5,700 in 2018 and around $57,000 this year. This shows a similar pattern on a much larger scale.
He expects Bitcoin to keep recovering through July. However, he thinks another pullback could happen in August or September before the market finds a final bottom, possibly around October. For investors, it means slowly buying Bitcoin over time through dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is a better approach. This is better than trying to catch the exact bottom.
What It Means for Altcoins
Cowen says the biggest difference between this cycle and previous ones is that Bitcoin never experienced the euphoric final rally usually seen at market tops.
Instead of peaking near $200,000 with capital rotating aggressively into altcoins, Bitcoin topped around $126,000 before sentiment faded. That missing blow-off rally is why many altcoins underperformed and why this cycle has felt more painful.
Despite that, Cowen said altcoins could still benefit if Bitcoin continues stabilizing after its expected cycle bottom.
Two Levels Driving the Short-Term Outlook
$61,147 is the first level to watch on any pullback. A cluster of buy orders and stop losses sits just below the recent swing low here. Additionally, price has a shown tendency to gravitate toward areas of dense order flow before making its next move.
$60,000 sits as the next floor below that. This level has acted as major support historically and aligns with how the market has behaved at this price in previous cycles. If $61,000 fails to hold, $60,000 is where the next serious test occurs.
