Strategy typically starts the week by highlighting the amount of Bitcoin that recently was added to its stockpile, yet the company was unusually silent on Monday.
The Bitcoin-buying firm stopped purchasing the asset for the first time in several weeks, as its stock price hovered near a 14-month low, according to TD Cowen Analyst Lance Vitanza.
“We found out this morning that Strategy did not issue any securities under any of its ATMs, nor did it purchase any incremental Bitcoin,” Vitanza shared in an email, referring to at-the-money offering programs allowing Strategy to issue preferred and common shares.
Strategy shares rose 5% on Friday to $179, according to Yahoo Finance. Over the past month, the company’s stock price has fallen 38%, as Bitcoin’s price has retreated from all-time highs. The company’s shares are now down 67% from last year’s peak of $543.
After falling as low as $82,175 last week, Bitcoin was changing hands around $89,000 on Monday afternoon. It changed hands for as high as $126,000 last month. In a Myriad prediction market, 69% of respondents believe that Bitcoin will pump to $100,000 with the remainder expecting BTC’s next move will be to $69,000. Myriad is a unit of Dastan, the parent company of an editorially independent Decrypt.
Strategy didn’t announce a Bitcoin purchase in early October; however, its timing aligned with pauses that occurred around the end of the preceding two fiscal quarters.
In a separate report, Vitanza acknowledged the potential that Strategy is dumped from MSCI indices in February, saying the decision “may be as misguided as it is unfortunate.”
Last week, JPMorgan analysts warned that Strategy outflows could reach $11.6 billion if MSCI removes the company from its indices next year and similar companies follow suit. MSCI has flagged Strategy’s similarities to investment funds, which aren’t eligible for inclusion.
Strategy may share some qualities, but it’s “clearly not an investment fund,” Vitzana said, describing the firm as “a public operating company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy using Bitcoin as productive capital.”
Still, Strategy’s removal from MSCI indices would trigger “substantial selling of MSTR common shares at a time the company is already trading at steeply depressed levels,” he said.
“Ultimately, active management of indexes meant to be passive may prove nothing more than an unfortunate speed bump on the road,” Vitanza added.
Earlier this month, Strategy’s market cap slipped below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, preventing the company from being able to grow the amount of Bitcoin that it owns per share by issuing common stock, as the firm has done historically.
This year, as issuing common stock has grown less lucrative, the company has raised billions of dollars through various preferred shares, which offer dividend payments, to buy Bitcoin. As of Monday, the company owned nearly 650,000 Bitcoin worth $57.8 billion.
