The decline accelerated on Sept. 24, leaving Bitcoin largely confined to the $83,000 to $85,000 area before Monday’s move towards the lower end of that range.
Oil prices moved higher after tensions between the US and Iran deteriorated over the weekend.
Brent crude rose roughly 1.5% to 1.6% towards $106 per barrel after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher oil prices have kept inflation risks in focus because energy costs can feed into transport and production expenses.
The Strait of Hormuz remains particularly important to energy markets, with roughly 20% of global oil supply passing through the waterway.
At the same time, US Treasury yields remained elevated alongside oil, with the 10 year yield trading around 5.2% during the Asian session and the 30 year yield near 5.52%.
Higher yields have tightened financial conditions while raising the return available on government debt.
Federal Reserve officials have maintained a hawkish stance as inflation remains above target.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said last week that more rate increases would likely be needed to contain inflation, with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure having risen to 3.7% in July.
Market pricing has moved in the same direction. Traders were assigning roughly a 66% probability to another Fed rate increase in October, while close to 90 basis points of further tightening had been priced through late 2027.
The US dollar has strengthened alongside those expectations. The dollar index was around 101.15 on Monday, close to a two month high and on course for a roughly 1.7% gain in September.
Bitcoin’s drop through $84,000 triggered some leveraged selling as well.
Derivatives data showed $BTC long positions being liquidated around $83,200 to $83,500, including an $844,000 Hyperliquid position near $83,479.
The individual liquidations remained small compared with the large liquidation events seen during sharper market moves.
Despite the latest price decline, US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds continued to receive fresh capital last week, which has helped cushion some of the selling pressure as $BTC retreated from its $87,000 high.
The funds recorded roughly $2.39 billion in net inflows during the five trading sessions through Sept. 25, according to SoSoValue data.
Monday accounted for $999 million, followed by $714.7 million on Tuesday, $347 million on Wednesday, $190.6 million on Thursday and $134.5 million on Friday.
Friday extended the positive run to seven consecutive trading sessions, during which the funds attracted close to $3 billion.
However, daily inflows have fallen in each session since Monday’s $999 million intake, suggesting that ETF buying has slowed even as the funds continue to record net inflows.
$BTC price analysis
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows price holding above the breakout area established earlier in September, but buying momentum has weakened since $BTC reached $87,000. See below.
$BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.
The Directional Movement Index still favours buyers on the daily timeframe.
The positive directional indicator stands at 33.98, well above the negative directional indicator at 15.90, while the Average Directional Index remains high at 43.31.
An ADX above 25 generally points to a well established directional move, but +DI has fallen from its recent peak as Bitcoin has retreated towards $83,000.
The gap between +DI and −DI means the larger daily trend has not yet flipped bearish.
A continued decline in +DI alongside a rise in −DI would weaken that structure, particularly if $BTC loses the support formed around $82,000 to $83,000.
On Balance Volume is near 1.76 million and has flattened after rising during Bitcoin’s September breakout.
OBV has slipped from its latest local high while $BTC has fallen from $87,000, showing that volume has not confirmed another push towards the recent high.
The 4-hour chart places the immediate support at $82,873, the low used for the latest Fibonacci range.
$BTC/USD 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView.
Bitcoin is trading only slightly above that level after falling below the 23.6% retracement at $83,935.
Chaikin Money Flow has dropped to roughly −0.06 on the same timeframe.
CMF moved below zero during the latest selloff after briefly recovering into positive territory, indicating that selling volume has outweighed buying volume over its calculation period.
A 4-hour close below $82,873 would break the bottom of the current Fibonacci range.
The next visible price area sits around $81,000 to $82,000, followed by the previous breakout region around $80,000 if sellers continue to push $BTC lower.
Bitcoin would first need to reclaim $83,935 to move back inside the Fibonacci range.
Above it, the 38.2% level at $84,591 and 50% retracement at $85,123 form the next resistance levels.
A move through $85,123 would bring $85,654, the 61.8% retracement, back into focus.
The 78.6% level sits near $86,411, followed by the recent swing high around $87,374.
