Bloomberg reported today that Donald Trump is preparing to increase military pressure on Iran following the elections in the US and Israel. The report highlighted Trump’s messages suggesting that attacks could resume after the US midterm elections on November 3rd.
From a market perspective, concern is not limited to the military dimension of a potential conflict. Risks in energy supply affect oil prices, and more expensive oil impacts inflation expectations. This fuels anxieties that interest rates may remain high for longer, making it more difficult for risky assets like Bitcoin to recover.
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No Strong Buying Support Coming from the US
The strength of demand to match sales is also questionable. CoinGlass’s Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for 31 days. The current indicator is approximately at minus 0.13 percent.
The index compares the Bitcoin price on Coinbase to the price on Binance. A negative value indicates that Bitcoin is priced lower on Coinbase, where it trades against the US dollar. This suggests that buyers are weaker or selling pressure is stronger in the US market compared to the global market.
The fact that this indicator is still negative as Bitcoin loses its $80,000 support level highlights the lack of strong spot demand to halt the decline.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows stated in a post on X today that Bitcoin and Ethereum faced selling pressure at the end of a low-liquidity week.
The liquidity problem highlighted by Pillows is significant in terms of the impact of sales on price. When there aren’t enough buyers in the order book, sell orders can be fulfilled at lower prices. The forced closing of leveraged positions can also accelerate this movement.
Yi Lihua, in his post today, pointed to a broader issue. Arguing that the crypto sector is going through a weak period, the investor stated that the AI sector is attracting significant capital and skilled workers. While maintaining optimism about the overall trend, Yi added that patience is needed.
As the price declined, investors expecting a rise closed their positions one after another. According to updated data from CoinGlass, approximately $828.28 million worth of liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours. Of this, $698.51 million was from long positions and $129.77 million from short positions.
Of the approximately $430 million in liquidations in the last four hours, $404 million was from long positions. Thus, 94% of the liquidations during this period came from upward-trending trades.
The decline in Bitcoin has spread to other major cryptocurrencies. Ethereum fell below $2,300, and Solana dropped below $100. The short-term focus of the market is now on whether Bitcoin can regain $80,000.
*This is not investment advice.
