In a recent interview with Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, Mark Moss, host of the ‘Mark Moss Show’ and Partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, discussed his bullish outlook on Bitcoin, predicting that its price could reach $1 million by 2030. Moss laid out his reasoning behind this forecast, sharing the math and logic that drive his optimism.
Moss started by referencing the historical growth rate of Bitcoin, which he said has averaged a 150% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR). He acknowledged that such exponential growth isn’t sustainable forever but stated that Bitcoin’s trajectory will still significantly outperform traditional financial markets like the S&P 500. He used this data to calculate three scenarios: a bearish case, a mid-case, and a bullish case. According to Moss, even the most conservative case predicts that Bitcoin would double the performance of the S&P 500, which he considers extremely bearish. Moss pointed out that given Bitcoin’s high sensitivity to global liquidity, its price is likely to rise dramatically as liquidity in the global markets increases.
When discussing how Bitcoin performs relative to global liquidity, Moss shared that Bitcoin has a 9.5 sensitivity ratio, meaning for every 10% increase in liquidity, Bitcoin rises by 90%. This compares to gold’s 1.49 sensitivity ratio and the S&P 500’s 1.0. Moss explained that this high sensitivity makes Bitcoin an incredibly responsive asset during periods of monetary expansion, like the one he anticipates in the future. By projecting global debt and deficit levels from sources like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Moss arrived at the conclusion that Bitcoin’s price could easily surpass Michael Saylor’s target of $10-13 million by 2045.
When Makori asked Moss for a more near-term price prediction, he said that he expects Bitcoin to trade between $100,000 and $150,000 by the end of 2024 or early 2025. Moss added that this forecast depends heavily on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. He believes that if Donald Trump wins and enacts his policies, Bitcoin could skyrocket to $400,000 before the end of the cycle. On the other hand, a victory by Kamala Harris could lead to a more subdued performance, potentially causing Bitcoin to undershoot the lower end of its target range.
Moss tied his predictions not just to Bitcoin but to broader societal and economic conditions. He emphasized that Bitcoin represents freedom of choice in wealth storage, a concept he believes is fundamentally tied to personal liberty. Moss warned that many U.S. citizens are unaware that their ownership of assets like cash, stocks, and homes is conditional under a debt-based monetary system. He explained that Bitcoin is the last asset where individuals can claim true ownership, unlike cash in the bank or stocks held by brokers, which legally belong to intermediaries. According to Moss, Bitcoin’s significance extends beyond being just a financial asset—it’s a way for individuals to store value outside traditional, centralized financial systems.
Moss also addressed the growing divide in the U.S. political landscape, framing the 2024 election as a choice between freedom and centralized control. He remarked that while Bitcoin may not be on the ballot, the broader issue is whether individuals can choose how they store their wealth. Moss argued that a Trump presidency would favor individual freedom in financial matters, whereas a Harris-led administration might impose more control over private wealth.
It is worth remembering that in his pro-crypto speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference on July 27, Trump made a series of bold promises regarding the future of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency under his potential presidency. He began by acknowledging that “there’s never been anything like Bitcoin,” describing it as not just a technological marvel but also a “miracle of cooperation and human achievement.” Trump predicted that Bitcoin would likely surpass the market cap of gold, cementing its status as a major global asset.
A significant part of his vision involves making the U.S. the global Bitcoin superpower, with a plan to have every Bitcoin mined within U.S. borders. Trump also took a firm stance on the right to self-custody crypto assets, defending the principle that individuals should maintain control over their digital wealth.
One of his most striking commitments was his pledge to fire current SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office if he wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election and to replace him with someone more favorable to the crypto industry. Trump assured that future crypto regulations would be crafted by people who want the industry to thrive.
In addition to supporting Bitcoin, Trump expressed his desire to establish a regulatory framework for dollar-backed stablecoins, which he believes will strengthen the U.S. dollar rather than undermine it. He argued that Bitcoin isn’t a threat to the dollar, but rather the current government’s actions are what pose a danger to the dollar’s value.
Trump further predicted that crypto would skyrocket in value under his leadership and claimed that the U.S. government is already one of the largest holders of Bitcoin. He promised to hold onto 100% of the government’s current bitcoins and any it might acquire in the future.
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