The euphoric momentum of the Bitcoin bull market is waning across all metrics, according to blockchain analysts.
Reflexivity Research co-founder Will Clemente noted on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s price—down 3% on the day to $64,500 as of writing—is now close to the “short-term holder cost basis” of $63,800, per Glassnode data. That’s an on-chain indicator tracking the average price at which recent investors bought in.
“Don’t want to see consecutive days closed below,” wrote Clemente. “Typically serves as a good line in the sand for trends.”
Haven’t posted about on-chain stuff in a while haha
BTC approaching short-term holders’ cost basis around $63.8k, don’t want to see consecutive days closed below. Typically serves as a good line in the sand for trends. https://t.co/wx3UcXIluc pic.twitter.com/7fm8YNxPMf
— Will (@WClementeIII) June 18, 2024
Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said in a Tuesday report that the on-chain realized price for short-term holders is actually higher at $65,800, meaning Bitcoin has already lost that level of support.
Theoretically, short-term holders are more likely than long-term investors to panic sell when their investments go slightly underwater. That makes the cohort’s realized price a pivotal line of support which, if lost, can trigger major losses very fast.
For example, the last time Bitcoin lost this support line was in early May, when the price immediately cratered 8% to under $57,000. At today’s prices, an 8% correction would take Bitcoin down to $60,000.
As price consolidates lower, various other metrics signal withering demand from new investors in recent weeks.
Not only are miners still dumping their coins, but the market cap of stablecoin giant Tether (USDT)—the dollar-pegged token that investors often use to trade in and out of BTC—is now growing at its slowest rate since November. Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales are also accumulating coins at a relatively slower rate again despite ramping up their purchases in late May.
According to CryptoQuant’s bull/bear market indicator, Bitcoin remains in a “bull market,” but with low bullish momentum.
“The overall realized price stands at $30.4K,” wrote CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno in a message to Decrypt. This metric tracks the cost basis for all Bitcoin holders including long-term HODLers. The further Bitcoin’s market price strays from this level, the further entrenched the asset is in a bull market—or so the theory goes.
“Comparing the realized price to the market price we see that the market price is about 2.18 times the realized price (MVRV ratio), which signals we are at halfway [through] a bull market,” the analyst added. “Usually the price tops come at 4.0 or more.”
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.
