Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency, is approaching $100,000. While some experts are sure that the markets are already overheated, CryptoQuant’s researchers explain why the peak is nowhere near. Here’s why the situation might mirror the cautious optimism of Q2, 2020.
Bitcoin (BTC) enters third phase of its cycle: What does this mean?
Bitcoin (BTC), the first cryptocurrency, just reentered the “orange” phase of its price cycle based on the SMA Multiplier chart. As such, BTC has jumped into the third stage of its rally out of eight ones registered in previous years, as noticed by Axel Adler, community expert of CryptoQuant.
The orange dot has arrived. Red, purple, blue, navy, and black – is coming. pic.twitter.com/PSKIPishmE
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) November 23, 2024
As explained by the speaker, the model uses a four-year (1,458-day) simple moving average of daily BTC prices. Then, it calculates the ratio between the current price and SMA1458 called the SMA Multiplier.
To find out whether “we are still early,” the model maps each multiplier to a color range: Green (<1.5), Yellow (1.5-2), Orange (2-2.5) and more. In each cycle, Bitcoin (BTC) comes through green, yellow, orange, red, purple, blue, navy and black “zones.”
The model is displayed on a logarithmic scale when Bitcoin (BTC) finds its place in the “orange zone” at current sub-$100,000 prices.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju confirms that the model can be valid for the ongoing cycle, which is net bullish for Bitcoiners:
Bitcoin cyclical top still has a long way to go.
Given the fact that Bitcoin (BTC) is surging now, the current situation “rhymes” with that of late Q3, 2019, and Q2, 2020, when the orange coin was trying to conquer the $10,000 level.
Bitcoin (BTC) price discovery patterns hint at seven-digit levels
On the “descending” pattern, Bitcoin (BTC) entered similar zones right before the crash of the Terra/Luna ecosystem in May 2022.
Yesterday, on Nov. 22, Bitcoin (BTC) hit another all-time high over $99,600 on major spot exchanges, CoinGecko data says.
Recently, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared two “parabolic” scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC) price discovery in this run.
#Bitcoin parabolic bull scenario during price discovery https://t.co/ARK79Kz2ti pic.twitter.com/VPi0mFZXmz
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 22, 2024
Should the run repeat the 2017 pattern, it spells $1.15 million as the target price for Bitcoin (BTC). A more cautious 2020 pattern hints at $262,000 as the maximum.
