Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 5.5% in the past 24 hours, falling below the $100,000 mark, despite a 38% surge in trading volume to $67 billion. The decline stems from bearish signals in key metrics, including the 7-day MVRV Ratio and heightened whale activity, both indicating mounting selling pressure.
While BTC’s EMA lines maintain a bullish outlook, a rapid decline in short-term EMAs suggests a potential bearish reversal if a death cross occurs. The next few days will be pivotal as BTC approaches critical support and resistance levels, which could shape its next directional move.
MVRV Ratio Shows BTC Could Continue Dropping
The 7-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio for Bitcoin is currently at -2.63%, a significant drop from 5.6% recorded two days ago. The MVRV Ratio measures whether BTC holders are in profit or loss by comparing the market value (current price) to the realized value (average purchase price).
Negative MVRV values, like the current one, indicate that, on average, BTC holders are in a loss position, potentially signaling a period of market capitulation or undervaluation.
BTC 7D MVRV Ratio. Source: Santiment
Historical trends suggest that BTC’s 7D MVRV Ratio could decline further to levels around -5% or -6% before a recovery begins, as observed between December 20 and December 23.
If this pattern repeats, BTC could experience additional selling pressure in the short term, potentially testing lower support levels.
Bitcoin Whales Are Accumulating at a Slow Pace
The number of Bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC reached a month-high of 2,108 on December 16 before sharply dropping to 2,061 just one day later. Tracking whale activity is crucial because these large holders can significantly impact the market through their buying or selling behavior.
When whale numbers decline, it often indicates profit-taking or reduced confidence, which can apply downward pressure on prices. Conversely, an increase in whale activity typically reflects accumulation, signaling confidence and potentially supporting price stability or growth.
Number of addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode
After reaching a month-low of 2,049 between December 24 and December 26, the number of Bitcoin whales has been recovering steadily, currently standing at 2,059 as of January 7. This gradual increase suggests renewed accumulation by large investors, a positive sign for market sentiment.
The recovery from the lows could indicate that whales are regaining confidence in BTC’s potential upside, although they are not accumulating BTC at a fast pace, which could suggest they are still waiting to see where BTC price goes.
BTC Price Prediction: Can It Return to $100,000 Soon?
BTC EMA lines show that short-term EMAs are still above the long-term ones, maintaining a bullish structure. However, the short-term lines are declining quickly, indicating weakening momentum.
If this trend persists and a death cross forms— where the short-term EMA crosses below the long-term EMA — it could signal a bearish reversal. In this scenario, Bitcoin price could test support at $93,400, and a break below this level might push the price further down to $91,200.
BTC Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
Conversely, if the current downtrend is halted and bullish momentum returns, BTC price could test the resistance at $98,800. A successful breakout above this level might pave the way for further gains, with $99,900 as the next target.
Should this momentum persist, BTC could aim to retest levels around $102,000, signaling a potential recovery from its recent decline. The outcome depends heavily on whether buying pressure can counter the emerging bearish signals from the EMA lines.
