The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been dropping significantly in recent days. Many investors are trying to figure out what to do, especially because there is genuine panic spreading in the financial markets.
To understand the situation, however, it is necessary to distinguish between what is happening in the short term and how the situation is evolving in the long term.
The crash of the BTC (Bitcoin) price
Today the price of Bitcoin for a moment even dropped below $75,000, although later it returned above $76,000.
At this moment, it appears to have lost 30% compared to the historical highs recorded in January.
For the trend of the price of BTC in reality -30% in just over two and a half months is not a big loss, but compared to what happened in November, to many it may seem like a catastrophe.
In reality, before Trump’s electoral victory, it was still under $70,000, with the all-time high still being the $74,000 of March 2024.
The fact is that thanks to the so-called Trump trade it had started to establish a new high one after the other, first rising to $80,000, then even above $90,000 to end even above $100,000.
It took just over a month to go from less than $70,000 to more than $100,000, and now it has taken two months to go from more than $100,000 to less than $80,000.
A parabola like this does not seem like a collapse at all, but it resembles much more a mini-bubble that inflates and then bursts.
On the other hand, the mini-bubble inflated due to expectations regarding Trump’s policies, and it began to deflate right when the new president took office at the end of January, ultimately failing to meet almost all expectations.
The long-term trend
Much more interesting is the long-term trend.
It should be noted, however, that speculators care very little about the long-term trend, as they are focused on the short or at most the medium term, but holders are much more interested in the long period.
Well, not only is the current price still higher than the maximum of the previous cycle (the $69,000 reached in December 2021), but it is much higher than both the price at the beginning of 2023 (less than $17,000) and the price at the beginning of 2024 (above $42,000).
Indeed, the current price of Bitcoin is higher than all the prices reached by BTC before Trump’s electoral victory in November of last year.
The forecasts on the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
Obviously, what really makes the difference is the evolution of the BTC price from here on.
For now, the bear hypotheses still prevail, linked to the fact that the fall of traditional markets might not yet be over.
However, these are often hypotheses that do not foresee major crashes, although many are convinced that it could drop back below $70,000. Moreover, many among those who think of a dip below this threshold imagine that afterwards the price could also bounce back.
In other words, the mini-bubble triggered by the electoral victory of Trump could completely dissolve, with a return to previous values, namely those of October 2024.
The rest will probably be done by the traditional markets, where it is necessary to understand how the political strategy of Trump himself will evolve.
At this moment, the markets seem to have started pricing in a recession in the USA during the course of 2025, and if such risk were to decrease in the coming weeks or months, a rebound could materialize.
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What is recommended to do now?
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There are many pieces of advice circulating on what would be best to do in this situation.
Certainly, it is not advisable to act emotionally, letting panic take over. This does not mean that it is not advisable to sell, but that it is advisable to think carefully before doing so.
Furthermore, more and more hypotheses are beginning to circulate suggesting that an interesting window for purchases may have opened.
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Those who speculate in the short term must be very careful of false starts, and especially of forced liquidations in case they operate with leverage. At this moment, short-term speculation still means taking big risks, whether opening long positions or opening short positions.
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For those who are holding, like many whales, this could be a period of accumulation, especially if traditional financial markets will recover sooner or later. Even in this case, buying means taking on risks, but at least without the problem of false starts and forced liquidations of leveraged positions.
Risks of further crolli
However, the risk that further collapses may occur, even below $65,000, cannot be completely ruled out.
However, the fact remains that the current descending phase seems to be directed towards the end of April, and to imagine a BTC price below $65,000 might require a bit more time.
Furthermore, Trump’s political strategy cannot remain for long as the one that is causing the financial markets to collapse, and unless the inevitable changes turn out to be worse than the harm he has already done, sooner or later the current correction will have to end.
If the term occurs before the beginning of May, at that point a rebound becomes possible, otherwise new crashes would become increasingly likely.
