While Bitcoin recently surpassed $82,000, this upward trend has been the subject of many predictions about a potential bottom.
However, even though Bitcoin rose above $82,000, it failed to break above the 200-day moving average, fueling speculation that the bottom may not have been reached yet.
While a continued decline is anticipated at this point, K33 Research analysts still believe that BTC’s February low of $60,000 is the bottom.
K33 Research stated that Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 in February marked the bottom of this cycle, and that they expect different outcomes this time due to the failure to break above the 200-day moving average.
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, noted that past bear market rallies have often been followed by further declines due to increased risk appetite and leveraged positions.
However, Lunde noted that the latest market model is different, stating that the 200-day moving averages are not the same in every cycle and that they do not expect the sharp declines that followed similar movements in previous years to occur this time.
“The inability to break above the 200-day moving average led to sharper declines in 2014, 2018, and 2022. In those years, both rises and falls were sharp. However, in this cycle, since the current rises are slow and stable, we expect the falls to be slow as well. But this hasn’t been the case.”
Lunde also emphasized that a total of 189 days passed between the drop below the 200-day moving average last November and this month’s retest, which is a much longer period than in previous cycles.
From a cyclical perspective, the study concluded that this model more closely resembles moderate bull market conditions in March-April 2025 than a short-term bear market recovery.
Lunde stated, “We maintain our view that the less aggressive bull market seen in 2025 sets the stage for a more moderate bear market in 2026, and according to our base scenario, $60,000 in February marks the maximum decline, the bottom, of this cycle.”
*This is not investment advice.
