Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin’s underlying market structure remains relatively constructive.
A report from K33 Research suggests the cryptocurrency has successfully absorbed a significant derivatives deleveraging event without experiencing the type of sharp decline that often accompanies large-scale liquidations.
Rising US Treasury yields put pressure on Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s latest rally has stalled around the $85,400 mark, with buyers unable to generate enough momentum to turn the level into reliable support.
One of the biggest obstacles facing $BTC is the surge in US government bond yields.
The five-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, while the benchmark 10-year yield has moved beyond 5.2%, putting both at their highest levels in roughly 19 years.
Higher Treasury yields can create headwinds for cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive assets because they increase the returns available from comparatively lower-risk government debt.
As yields rise, investors may become less willing to allocate capital toward more volatile assets.
Bitcoin’s inability to break $85,000 therefore comes against an increasingly challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
Investors are also hesitant to build large positions before several important US economic releases that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is among the major reports in focus on Wednesday, alongside the final reading of second-quarter US Gross Domestic Product.
The Core PCE was at 0.2%, lower than the 0.3% analysts had expected.
In addition to that, GDP grew 2.2%, higher than the 1.5% analysts had forecasted.
Attention will then turn toward the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday before Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Comments from Federal Open Market Committee officials could provide additional clues about the Fed’s policy outlook.
Any significant shift in interest-rate expectations could affect Treasury yields and the US Dollar, potentially generating renewed volatility across Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
While macroeconomic conditions are limiting Bitcoin’s upside in the short term, derivatives data paints a more encouraging picture.
According to a K33 Research report published Tuesday, Bitcoin recently experienced one of its largest derivatives deleveraging events in months without suffering a corresponding collapse in price.
Combined Open Interest across Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures and perpetual contracts declined by 49,028 $BTC over seven days. K33 described this as the largest weekly reduction since October 2025.
A large drop in Open Interest indicates that leveraged positions are being closed or liquidated.
Such events can sometimes intensify market declines, particularly when excessive leverage triggers cascading liquidations.
This time, however, Bitcoin remained comparatively resilient. K33 suggested the reduction was primarily driven by profit-taking rather than aggressive panic selling.
Spot trading volumes also remained below their yearly averages despite Bitcoin’s higher price, pointing to relatively limited sell-side pressure.
Bitcoin technical outlook: $85K remains the key resistance
Bitcoin is trading around $84,433 on Wednesday, leaving the cryptocurrency only a few percentage points below the psychologically and technically important $85,000 resistance zone.
The inability to close decisively above $85,000 shows that sellers remain active around this area.
A sustained breakout would therefore be required to strengthen the case for another leg higher.
Despite the rejection, Bitcoin’s broader technical setup remains constructive.
$BTC continues to trade above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, indicating that the recent rally has not yet suffered a major technical breakdown.
The Relative Strength Index sits around 63.
The reading remains above the neutral 50 level without entering overbought territory, suggesting buyers retain an advantage but momentum is no longer accelerating aggressively.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator offers a slightly more cautious signal.
Its histogram has slipped marginally into negative territory, pointing toward fading bullish momentum.
Rather than confirming an outright bearish reversal, the indicator currently supports the possibility of continued consolidation while buyers and sellers compete for control.
If Bitcoin extends its pullback, the 50-day EMA around $77,792 represents the first major dynamic support zone.
Below that level, the 200-day EMA near $74,434 and the 100-day EMA around $74,303 create a significant cluster of longer-term support.
A breakdown beneath these moving averages would represent a much more meaningful deterioration in Bitcoin’s technical structure and could expose lower horizontal support levels around $66,500 and $62,300.
For now, however, $BTC remains comfortably above these areas.
On the upside, $85,000 remains the immediate hurdle.
A convincing daily close above this barrier, particularly alongside improving momentum and stronger trading volume, could signal that buyers are regaining control.
Until then, Bitcoin could remain caught between macroeconomic pressure from elevated Treasury yields and a comparatively healthy internal market structure created by declining leverage.
With several major US economic reports approaching, volatility could increase rapidly.
The reaction around $85,000 will likely remain particularly important in determining whether Bitcoin resumes its advance or extends its current consolidation phase.
