Bitcoin author Adam Livingston highlights a recurring pattern between Bitcoin and gold that he believes reveals when Bitcoin may reach its next all-time high.
Livingston said the $BTC/XAU ratio has followed identical cycle structures since 2017, with gold outperforming Bitcoin after each ratio peak before $BTC later reaches a new all-time high. Citing this, he believes $BTC could reach its next peak between April and December 2027.
Key Points
- Livingston said Bitcoin cycles repeatedly show gold outperforming $BTC before a new all-time high appears.
- He estimates Bitcoin could reach its next all-time high between April 2027 and December 2027.
- Bitcoin’s recovery gains have become smaller with each market cycle.
- $BTC now needs a 95% gain from the February 2026 low to set a new all-time high.
Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Suggests Another Bitcoin Cycle
Livingston explained that the $BTC/XAU ratio usually climbs during Bitcoin bull markets before gold starts quietly outperforming Bitcoin for about 14 months.
He said the ratio then reaches a bottom, after which Bitcoin eventually goes on to hit a new all-time high against the U.S. dollar. He noted that this pattern has already appeared twice and now seems to be playing out a third time.
According to the market commentator, the pattern is unusually consistent, especially considering the regular timing between each cycle peak and bottom.
Historical Data Confirms Consistent Pattern
In the first instance, Livingston called attention to the 2017 cycle, when Bitcoin started outperforming gold in January 2015 and continued doing so for around two years. Bitcoin eventually climbed to 16 ounces of gold per $BTC in December 2017, which marked the top of that cycle in the $BTC/XAU ratio.
After the December 2017 peak, gold began gaining strength against Bitcoin. $BTC continued losing ground to gold throughout 2018 and into 2019, pushing the $BTC/XAU ratio down to a bottom of 3 ounces of gold by January 2019. During this cycle, gold outperformed Bitcoin for 416 days.
Livingston then compared this period with the next cycle. Notably, after bottoming at 3 ounces of gold in January 2019, Bitcoin recovered and later reached a new peak of 37 ounces of gold by October 2021.
From there, gold once again moved ahead of Bitcoin until the $BTC/XAU ratio fell to the cycle bottom of 9 ounces in January 2023. Livingston pointed out that this period lasted 440 days.
According to Livingston, the current cycle has followed the same pattern. Specifically, Bitcoin rebounded from the January 2023 low and again outperformed gold until it reached a fresh peak of 41 ounces of gold per Bitcoin in December 2024.
After that, gold started outperforming Bitcoin once more and pushed the $BTC/XAU ratio down to 12 ounces by February 2026, marking the bottom. Livingston said this latest period lasted 433 days before Bitcoin started gaining strength against gold again.
Bitcoin’s Dollar Price Reacts Later
Livingston pointed out that the timing has been consistent in all three cycles. However, he noted that during the latest cycle, the $BTC/XAU ratio peaked around 10 months before Bitcoin reached its dollar-denominated top.
According to him, gold had already started outperforming Bitcoin before the wider market noticed the change through fiat prices.
He then mentioned what happened after previous $BTC/XAU bottoms. Livingston noted that Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in U.S. dollar terms 711 days after the 2019 bottom and 469 days after the 2023 bottom. Following the February 2026 bottom, he said the market now appears to be in the early stages of another recovery period.
Using the average length of the previous recovery phases, Livingston estimated a timeline of 590 days between a $BTC/XAU bottom and Bitcoin reaching a fresh dollar all-time high. Notably, only 83 days have passed since the February 2026 bottom, meaning the market is still roughly 14% into the expected recovery window.
Based on that timeline, Livingston projected that Bitcoin could reach its next all-time high sometime between April 2027 and December 2027. At the same time, he also pointed to a slowing trend in the size of each recovery rally.
Bitcoin Could See Smaller but Easier Recoveries
Livingston explained that Bitcoin needed a 500% gain from the 2018 low to set a new all-time high during the next cycle. From the 2022 low, Bitcoin required a 328% increase to move past its previous peak. Meanwhile, from the February 2026 low of $64,049, Bitcoin now needs only a 95% rise to reach another all-time high.
He argued that these recovery moves become easier with each cycle because Bitcoin’s monetary base continues to strengthen over time.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin commentator Sminston With shared a separate commentary based on what he called the Bitcoin Decay Channel.
With said the model currently shows a conservative Bitcoin price range between $90,000 and $255,000 by the end of 2026. He also said the same model projects a range between $128,000 and $308,000 by the end of 2027.
