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Bank of Japan signals possible January 2026 rate cut as yen weakens further globally.
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Yen trades near 156 per dollar, raising import costs and adding inflation pressure domestically.
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Past BOJ policy moves triggered sharp Bitcoin swings, sometimes causing 20–25% drops historically.
Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), is signaling that another rate cut is expected in January 2026. Despite the yen continuing to weaken sharply against the U.S. dollar.
This move has raised concern across global markets, especially about how Bitcoin and the wider crypto market may react.
BOJ Indicates More Rate Cuts In January
For years, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has followed an ultra-easy policy to support economic growth, even as other central banks raised rates. Japan stayed far behind.
Now, things have begun to change. On December 19, 2025, the BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly 30 years. This move signaled a shift away from long-running ultra-low rates.
BOJ officials said Japan’s interest rates are still very low compared to other countries. They noted that low rates have weakened the yen and pushed inflation higher. Thus, some experts expect another rate likely to reach 1.25%–1.50% by 2027.
Despite these views, data from Polymarket shows a 97% chance of no rate change in January, while only 2% expect a 0.25% rate cut, showing uncertainty about the BOJ’s next step.
Japanese Yen Continued to Weaken
Following the December rate cut, the Japanese yen continued to weaken against the U.S. dollar and is now trading near ¥156 per dollar.
Although Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, they remain far below U.S. rates of around 3.75%. This gap keeps investors moving toward the dollar for better returns.
The weaker yen is increasing import costs and adding inflation pressure, showing that Japan’s monetary policy is still loose compared to other major economies.
How Bitcoin and Crypto Could React
Historically, BOJ rate increases have affected Bitcoin and other risky assets. Previous market data shows that Bitcoin has seen sharp swings after earlier BOJ policy moves, with drops of 20–25% following some rate hikes.
This pattern was seen again recently. When the BOJ made its latest rate cut earlier this month, Bitcoin fell nearly 5% in a single day, dropping to around $88,000.
Despite this, many traders noted that expectations for a rate hike were already 98% priced in, limiting further volatility.
However, loose monetary policy often pushes investors to look for assets that can protect value. In such periods, Bitcoin often serves as a hedge against currency weakness.
