Volatility has stormed back as August got off to shaky jobs data, aggressive tariffs, and the crypto market dealing with the correction. The digital assets market cap surged marginally on Monday morning to stand at $3.37 trillion as its 24-hour trading volume dipped by 14%, hitting $110 billion.
After a record-setting rally, Bitcoin price saw a dramatic return with a weekend selloff fueled by the worst spot ETF outflows in months. BTC slid to $114,000 after nearly $1 billion in ETF outflows across Thursday and Friday.
Ethereum wasn’t spared either as it dropped from the $3,800 level to the $3,500 zone over the past 7 days.
Ethereum stays hot as Bitcoin cools off
SoSovalue data shows that August 1 saw $812.25 million leave Bitcoin ETFs. July 31 had also posted a withdrawal of $114.35 million. The net flows into BTC ETFs reversed to negative $643 million last week, ending a seven-week positive run.
Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs still recorded $154 million in net inflows, hitting their 12th consecutive week of printing green.
Source: SoSoValue
Bitcoin price is down around 4% in the last 7 days, but still remains up by 7% over the 30-day time frame. BTC is trading at an average price of $114,594 at press time. Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin last month. ETH price jumped by 42% over the last 7 days, hovering around the $3,500 zone.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom, had warned over the weekend that Bitcoin and Ethereum were primed for a correction. Pointing to weak job creation, rising tariffs, and sluggish credit creation globally, Hayes argued that BTC could test $100,000 and ETH $3,000 before resuming any rally. “No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal GDP,” he stated in a X post.
However, his longer-term forecast remains ultra-bullish, expecting BTC to hit $250K BTC by year-end and $1 million by 2028. Historically, August has not been great for Bitcoin and Ethereum as they closed lower in each of the past four Augusts.
Rate cut odds surge
But just as panic set in, a weak US jobs report flipped the script. Only 73,000 jobs were added in July, which was well below the expected 110,000. The downward revisions from May and June shaved off 258,000 jobs, the steepest two-month downgrade since the COVID crash. This was enough to send rate cut odds surging.
According to Polymarket, there’s now a 70% chance the Fed cuts rates by 25bps in September, up from just 35% a week ago. The odds of a deeper 50bps cut are rising too, but it is still under 7%. Amid this, the US dollar dropped, bond yields fell, and risk appetite reawakened across markets.
Source: Polymarket
The global markets are dealing with US President Trump’s newly announced tariffs targeting 69 countries. But with Fed policy now firmly back in play, and inflation data still running hot. The upcoming week can make or break the market as investors will see the July S&P Global Services PMI data on Monday.
Initial Jobless claims data will be out on Thursday, with five scheduled Fed speakers this week.
