Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent breach of the $100,000 price level has sparked discussions among analysts about market conditions and potential risks — while some metrics suggest caution, others indicate room for further gains, according to analysts.
VanEck head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel observed that only a few indicators suggest a market peak, leaving room for potential price increases.
Sigel pointed to a low MVRV Z-Score, subdued search interest for “Bitcoin,” relatively stable BTC market dominance, and a simple moving average multiplier still in a moderate range.
He also acknowledged elevated funding rates but emphasized that these have persisted without triggering significant market corrections.
Call for caution
In contrast, a recent report by Glassnode highlighted metrics that call for caution. The report emphasized risks stemming from the current redistribution of Bitcoin supply and intensified profit-taking behavior.
The Realized Supply Density metric, which has dropped below 10%, reflects that a significant portion of Bitcoin’s circulating supply now sits in unrealized profit. Historically, such conditions have been associated with heightened market volatility.
Another concerning metric is the Percent of Supply in Profit (PSIP), which shows that over 90% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently profitable—a level Glassnode categorizes as “Very High Risk.” This phase often precedes market corrections as investors look to secure gains.
Additionally, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has surged to 0.59, signaling extreme market optimism that could heighten vulnerability to sell-offs. Similarly, the Realized Profit and Loss Ratio (RPLR) has climbed above 9, indicating intense profit-taking activity that might overwhelm market demand and lead to a pullback.
Redistribution
The redistribution of Bitcoin’s supply further illustrates these trends. Between March and early November, Bitcoin traded within a narrow range of $54,000 to $74,000.
This extended period of consolidation allowed the supply to shift into higher cost bases, with around 15% of the circulating supply concentrated within this range. While this reflects increased market resilience, it also amplifies risks tied to the large proportion of supply now in profit.
Despite these warning signs, some indicators suggest that market pressures may ease. Realized Profit, which measures USD gains from on-chain transactions, has fallen sharply from $10.5 billion daily during the rally to $2.5 billion — a 76% decline.
Additionally, perpetual futures funding rates, which indicate leveraged demand, have started to stabilize, pointing to a potential cooling of speculative behavior. The mixed signals from these metrics highlight the complexity of Bitcoin’s current market conditions.
