“Following the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, $BTC fell 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively. That does not prove elections caused the declines, but the pattern is worth watching ahead of November 3, 2026,” Martinez wrote.
2/5 The US midterm elections are just over a month away and $BTC historical price action after prior midterms is hard to ignore.
Following the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, $BTC fell 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively.
That does not prove elections caused the declines,… pic.twitter.com/0c23clHSX8
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) September 29, 2026
At press time, September 29, the cryptocurrency was trading at $84,180, following a modest 0.55% 24-hour uptick.
Midterm elections Bitcoin price outlook
Making speculation even more complicated, Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter performance has also been mixed from a historical perspective. For example, it surged 391% in the fourth quarter of 2010, but fell 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018 and 14.75% in Q4 2022.
Accordingly, Martinez warned that the start of the fourth quarter could bring heightened volatility for Bitcoin investors. Specifically, should the post-midterm pattern repeat, the analyst predicted the $73,000 level could emerge as a potentially important area to watch.
“If this post-midterm pattern repeats, Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis near $73,000 could become the key support zone. During confirmed bull markets, this level has often held through major corrections, potentially creating a buying opportunity if $BTC pulls back,” he wrote.
This zone is important as it represents Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis and historically acted as support during confirmed bull markets. A day earlier, however, Martinez predicted a potential move toward the $100,000 region in the medium term if $BTC holds above the $82,000 neckline.
Featured image via Shutterstock
