The employment backdrop weakened as U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September and unemployment reached 4.2%, according to the September employment figures released Oct. 2 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. July and August gains were revised down by a combined 60,000.
Mena argued that softer hiring gives the Federal Reserve room to hold rates into 2027, describing a weekly decline of more than 35% in hike odds. Separately, derivatives exchange CME Group’s FedWatch rate probabilities reflect prices of contracts tied to future interest rates; they represent traders’ expectations.
Fund Buying Supports the Recovery as Rate Risks Remain
Alongside the economic shift, the analyst estimated approximately $7 billion in third-quarter net inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), stock-exchange products offering asset exposure. He described that as their strongest quarter since Q3 2025, ahead of the October 2025 record high. Net inflows measure additions after withdrawals.
Daily U.S. allocations were uneven around the quarter’s end, with $102.7 million in net inflows on Oct. 1, according to Farside Investors. That followed $148.7 million in withdrawals on Sept. 30. Mena’s quarterly estimates also included $2.6 billion for ether and $500 million for solana.
The scale of tightening also shapes the outlook, with crypto asset manager Grayscale describing September’s increase as a limited adjustment within the current economic cycle. Its Sept. 17 analysis anticipated a smaller effect on digital assets than the sustained tightening that began in 2022.
Upcoming releases provide further tests, as crypto exchange Bitfinex identifies continued direct buying as central to sustaining gains. Its October economic catalysts include the Consumer Price Index, which measures consumer inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Mena characterizes the cryptocurrency as particularly sensitive to the availability of investment capital.
Ether and Solana Targets Extend the Fourth-Quarter Forecast
The altcoin forecasts concern ether, the native cryptocurrency of Ethereum, and solana, the native token of the Solana network. Recent demand has varied, with ether and solana ETFs recording withdrawals of $55.37 million and $5.91 million, respectively, on Oct. 1. Ether funds experienced their third consecutive session of net outflows.
Mena stated:
“With momentum building, we see Ethereum breaking $3K toward $4K and Solana reclaiming $125 on its way to $140.”
“Uptober is off to a strong start. Q4 is historically Bitcoin’s best quarter, averaging 62.7% gains, and the stage is set for a strong year-end close,” he concluded.
