The company states that the cycle reached its bottom in late July after the Elliott Wave analysis hit its downward target and the price remained above the critically important $62,900 level.
Besides these, the company pointed to the 21-week moving average as a bottom indicator. Stating that this indicator also confirmed the bottom, the company noted that after $BTC surpassed $62,900, it also rose above the 21-week moving average of $69,272.
BIT Research considers this move one of the key indicators that the bear market is over.
“…When the price is above this, the trend is generally upward. When the price is below this, the trend is generally downward. This is one of the simplest and most effective ways to distinguish a bull market from a bear market. $BTC rose above this at $69,272; this is a strong indication that the bear market may be over.”
The analysis also calculated the fair value of $BTC using a model based on the relationship between US federal debt and the Bitcoin price. According to the model used by BIT Research and calculations based on approximately $40.1 trillion in US federal debt, the analysis company states that it found a fair value of approximately $105,000 for $BTC.
What are the Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin?
According to the “True Market Mean” indicator used by the company in the report, the average cost in the Bitcoin market is approximately $76,897. BIT Research noted that in past cycles, bull markets peaked after the Bitcoin price rose at least 85 percent above this average cost. This calculation points to a level of approximately $142,000 with the current data.
However, the company states that this figure is not a target or a final peak, but rather a baseline target expected to be surpassed later in the cycle.
BIT Research stated that its next bullish forecast is based on the assumption that the upside coefficient in previous Bitcoin cycles has narrowed over time, and it calculated the possible peak for the current cycle to be between $185,000 and $215,000.
According to the report, Bitcoin’s last cycle saw it reach an 85% multiplier, first around $73,000 in March 2024, and then peak at $126,000, approximately 1.7 times higher. Even if the multiplier were to drop to 1.3 to 1.5 times from a base of $142,000, the result would still be between $185,000 and $215,000.
“…If this multiplier falls to 1.3-1.5 times from a base of $142,000, a possible upside scenario could be $185,000-215,000.”
When Will This Rise Occur?
While the company expects an uptrend, it doesn’t suggest Bitcoin will reach $200,000 anytime soon. Noting that in the previous cycle there was approximately a 19-month gap between a similar signal and the final peak, BIT Research states that if the timing of the past cycle is repeated, a scenario around $200,000 could occur in the 2028-2029 period.
“…In the last cycle, it took about 19 months to reach the peak from the 85% level because it took time for the average cost to catch up with the price. If this cycle follows a similar timeline, a scenario around $200,000 could coincide with the years 2028-2029.”
However, these levels are based on scenarios created using price movements in past Bitcoin cycles and models used by BIT Research. The report does not necessarily mean that future price movements will definitely follow these levels.
*This is not investment advice.
