Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that the end of the war between Ukraine and Russia is “getting very close,” with Kyiv and Moscow apparently nearing some sort of deal.
For A7A5 — a ruble-pegged stablecoin designed to bypass the sanctions imposed on Russia following the 2022 invasion of its neighbor — any resultant easing of those measures raises an existential question: What happens when the conditions that created your market disappear?
According to Oleg Ogienko, an executive at the stablecoin, the business survives. Like its dollar and euro-pegged equivalents, the ruble token provides faster, cheaper international settlement than traditional banking payments, he said, and, like them, will find wider applications as international commerce opens up.
“Our stablecoin has a good chance to stay competitive even after the sanctions are lifted,” Ogienko told CoinDesk in Hong Kong. “If you trade with Russia, you need convenient and fast means of settlement.”
While stablecoins account for just a fraction of global payments, their popularity is growing, and they are likely to become a core layer of global finance, Chainalysis said in an April report. International business-to-business stablecoin transactions are projected to reach $13.4 billion this year, according to Juniper Research, and climb to $5 trillion by 2035.
One possible use might be paying for Russian oil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Iran war fueled a surge in demand for oil from the world’s third-largest producer. The country accounts for 11% of global production, surpassed only by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The closure hit Asia hard. South Korea is considering resuming oil imports from Russia — which it halted in the wake of the war in Ukraine — and many countries in Southeast Asia, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, see it as a lifeline.
From workaround to infrastructure
Ogienko’s pitch is that A7A5 is evolving from a sanctions-era workaround into a longer-term commercial infrastructure.
“The idea is that we can make an exchange rail between your stablecoin and ours,” he said. “Not using $USDT, $USDC, U.S. dollars. We just make direct swaps.”
Tether’s $USDT is the world’s largest stablecoin, with a market capitalization of about $190 billion. Circle Internet’s (CRCL) $USDC is No. 2 at $77 billion. A7A5’s market cap is about $500 million, according to CoinGecko data.
One might think that in Hong Kong, any non-dollar stablecoin would be welcome. Hong Kong, after all, has itself been targeted by U.S. sanctions.
While the territory’s authorities say financial institutions have no obligation to implement sanctions against Russia because they haven’t been passed by the United Nations (the only sanctions Hong Kong enforces), its newly licensed stablecoin regime is run by HSBC and a Standard Chartered-led venture.
Both are institutions deeply tied to Western financial infrastructure and sanctions compliance, caught between the West and East, making direct cooperation with a sanctions-linked Russian stablecoin difficult.
Working with Moscow
Lawmakers in Russia’s Duma are advancing legislation to create a formal legal framework for digital assets in cross-border settlements, while the Bank of Russia is studying the feasibility of a national stablecoin.
Ogienko said A7A5 is participating in consultations around that framework, though he warns the current draft risks creating a legal market that is too restrictive to be commercially viable.
“We participate in these consultations. We interact with regulators and market players,” he said.
But the law, as currently worded, needs work.
One concern is that crypto derivatives, which Ogienko described as the main profit engine for exchanges, are not addressed, potentially leaving newly licensed platforms with a weak business model in their early years.
Retail caps are another issue, with current proposals limiting non-qualified investors to 300,000 rubles ($4,000) annually.
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have been pitched as the future of cross-border commerce, but a future Russian CBDC would not necessarily threaten the business, he argued.
“It’s not a competitor for us at all,” Ogienko said, describing CBDCs as slow-moving state infrastructure focused more on budget oversight than commerce.
A7A5 may also appeal for reasons beyond payments. Ogienko said the token currently offers a roughly 13.5% return, reflecting elevated Russian interest rates.
“Of course, we have attracted some people because of yield,” he said, though he added that cross-border trade remains the token’s primary use case.
Life under sanction
For now, sanctions continue to shape the practical realities of doing business, limiting the token’s options for generating publicity.
Ogienko described a crypto conference circuit that is open to A7A5 as a sponsor (the company sponsored Token2049 in Singapore), but can be shy about its logo being displayed.
A recent blockchain conference in France, for example, offered A7A5 the chance to sponsor a dinner but not to display its branding or participate as a speaker.
“You can pay us, but you cannot place your logo,” he recalled
Asked how employees of a heavily sanctioned company pay for international travel, Ogienko’s answer was less blockchain futurism than old-school pragmatism.
“Cash,” he said, is king.
