Bitcoin faces a critical test as short-term resistance near $63,500 raises the risk of a liquidity sweep toward the $60,000 support zone. Meanwhile, a long-term cycle model projects a deeper 2026 bottom between $40,000 and $45,000 before $BTC begins another potential bull run.
Bitcoin Retests Short-Term Resistance as Sub-$62,000 Liquidity Comes Into Focus
Bitcoin is testing a lower-time-frame resistance zone after rebounding from its recent decline. The chart outlines a bearish near-term scenario in which $BTC rejects from the current area, sweeps liquidity below $62,000 and then finds demand near $60,000.
Bitcoin Retests $63,500 Resistance Before Possible Sub-$62,000 Sweep. Source: Kaz (@XBTkaz) on X
The Bitcoin chart shows price returning to a small resistance zone around $63,300 to $63,600. This area appears to be the planned retest mentioned by the analyst and represents the first point where sellers could regain control.
Kaz expects the current rebound to lose momentum and send $BTC toward downside liquidity below $62,000. In market terms, liquidity refers to areas where clusters of pending orders and stop-losses may sit. A move into that region could clear those orders before Bitcoin attempts a more sustained recovery.
The main area of interest for potential long positions sits between roughly $60,000 and $61,100. The chart marks this band as a broader demand zone that previously supported price. The projected path allows for volatility inside the area, including a possible dip near $60,000, before a rebound develops.
Confirmation of the bearish setup would come from a rejection near $63,500 followed by a break below the recent short-term lows. A clean move above the retest zone would weaken the immediate downside case and suggest buyers are maintaining control.
On the upside, the chart identifies $65,383 as the first profit-taking level for a potential recovery trade. Above that, Bitcoin could target the $66,940-to-$67,291 region, where the analyst marks a monthly fair value gap. A fair value gap is a price area created by a rapid market move that traders often expect price to revisit.
The proposed “Sunday pump, Monday dump” sequence remains the analyst’s scenario rather than a confirmed outcome. The practical takeaway is that Bitcoin faces resistance near $63,500, while the $60,000-to-$61,100 demand zone could become the more important area for determining the next larger move.
Bitcoin Cycle Model Projects a $40,000-$45,000 Bottom Before the Next Bull Run
A long-term Bitcoin cycle model points to another major low in 2026 before $BTC begins a projected advance toward fresh highs later in the decade. The outlook assumes Bitcoin will continue following its historical boom-and-bust pattern, although each cycle may deliver smaller percentage returns.
Bitcoin Cycle Model Projects 2026 Bottom. Source: Jesse Olson (@JesseOlson) on X
The monthly $BTC/USD chart compares Bitcoin’s previous market cycles with a forward projection extending through 2034. It places historical peaks near the upper green valuation band and major bottoms near the lower magenta band, while the white curve acts as a long-term midpoint.
Under this scenario, Bitcoin could continue falling toward a 2026 cycle bottom between $40,000 and $45,000. The chart shows $BTC near $63,418, meaning the projected low would require another substantial decline before the longer-term recovery begins.
The model then forecasts a rally toward $215,000 to $230,000 around 2029. A correction could follow in 2030, with Bitcoin potentially establishing a higher cycle floor between $80,000 and $85,000.
Two additional targets extend the pattern into the following cycle. The analyst projects a 2033 peak between $315,000 and $330,000, followed by a 2034 bottom near $125,000 to $130,000.
These estimates reflect a diminishing-returns thesis. Bitcoin would continue reaching higher nominal prices, but each bull market would generate a smaller percentage gain than earlier cycles. The chart also assumes slightly shorter cycles, moving from about 48 monthly bars in an earlier period to a projected 44 bars in the final cycle shown.
Confirmation of the near-term scenario would require Bitcoin to continue weakening into the lower long-term band and then form a clear monthly reversal near $40,000 to $45,000. A recovery above the chart’s central trend line would strengthen the argument that a new expansion phase has begun.
The projection would lose credibility if Bitcoin breaks decisively below the lower historical band, forms its next major high or low much earlier than expected, or stops following the repeating cycle structure. Olson also acknowledges that models change and that future bull runs are not guaranteed.
The post estimates that buying the projected 2026 bottom and holding through the 2034 bottom could produce an annual return of about 25%. However, the stated price ranges imply a compound annual return closer to roughly 14% to 15%, before fees and taxes.
The practical takeaway is that the chart supports a long-term bullish outlook but still allows for a deeper 2026 correction. Its distant price targets remain conditional scenarios rather than confirmed Bitcoin forecasts.
