US stock futures pointed to a tech-led start on Monday as investors returned from a third straight week of S&P 500 gains with another record in sight.
Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 170 points or 0.6%, S&P 500 futures added 0.1% and Dow futures slipped around 0.1% in early trading.
The immediate backdrop looks supportive: weaker retail spending and softer inflation have sharply reduced the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase.
But Brent crude pushing back towards $90 leaves one obvious threat to that optimism, while Micron leads another premarket push in memory stocks.
5 things to know before market opens
1. Nasdaq futures lead as Wall Street takes another run at a record
Technology is providing most of Monday’s early momentum. Nasdaq 100 futures were up roughly 0.5%, compared with a 0.1% rise in S&P 500 contracts, while Dow futures fell about 70 points.
The S&P 500 enters the session after three consecutive weekly gains. A close above its existing record of 7,798.99 would give the benchmark its 28th record finish of 2026.
AI remains central to the rally, but the breadth of second-quarter earnings has also helped.
2. The Fed trade has flipped after consumers pulled back
Friday’s retail-sales report changed the rates discussion more decisively than any single company result.
US retail sales fell 0.6% in July, their first decline in nine months, against expectations for a 0.1% increase.
The closely watched control group also dropped 0.4%. Some weakness reflected Amazon moving Prime Day into June and lower petrol-station receipts, but the figures still raised questions about household momentum.
CME FedWatch now implies only about a 31% chance of a September rate increase, down from roughly 50% a month ago. The dollar has consequently fallen to its lowest level since early June.
Monday’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey arrives at 8.30 am ET, providing the first new US activity signal of the week.
3. Brent approaches $90 as the Iran deadline passes without a settlement
Oil remains the clearest challenge to the market’s softer-inflation narrative.
Brent rose about $1 to $89.44 a barrel on Monday, while WTI climbed towards $83.
The move follows gains of more than 5% last week as diplomatic efforts involving Iran stalled and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed dramatically.
Iran says it is close to finalising an arrangement with Oman governing vessel transit, but the US-Iran negotiating period has expired without a wider peace agreement.
For equities, the tension is straightforward: weaker economic data are reducing Fed-hike risk, but another oil surge could quickly put inflation back at the centre of the policy debate.
4. Micron leads another memory-stock rally before the bell
Micron was one of Monday’s standout premarket movers, climbing about 3.5% to above $1,000 after closing Friday at $971.66. SanDisk rose about 5%, while Seagate and Western Digital also advanced.
The latest catalyst came after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated the administration would prefer Apple to source memory chips domestically rather than from China.
But the broader memory trade was already strengthening after SanDisk’s bullish outlook.
KeyBanc expects DRAM prices to increase another 15%-20% in the third quarter and NAND prices to surge 30%-40%, reinforcing expectations that tight AI-driven supply could keep the memory cycle stronger for longer.
5. Walmart and Home Depot become Wall Street’s consumer reality check
The weak retail-sales report makes this week’s earnings calendar unusually important.
Home Depot reports on Tuesday, followed by Target and Lowe’s on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday.
Investors will be watching whether July’s spending decline was largely a timing distortion or evidence that higher living costs and slower hiring are finally forcing households to retrench.
Consumer-company earnings growth has already lagged the broader market this season, making guidance from the largest retailers potentially more important than the headline profit numbers.
