Bitcoin’s slump dropped to under $54,000 below its 200-day simple moving average. The fall comes as Mt. Gox began to repay customers & German government continues to sell its sized Bitcoin holdings.
As Bitcoin experiences its anticipated summer lull, renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has talked a lot about Bitcoin’s summer slowdown, a period when its price tends to dip or stagnate. Now that this slowdown is here, Cowen is focusing on what the rest of the year might look like.
The big question is whether Bitcoin can climb back above its BMSB in the next few weeks or will it continue to face resistance?
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Summer Lull
In a recent thread post, Cowen noted that Bitcoin appears to be falling below its bull market support band (BMSB) during the summer of 2024. This isn’t a new occurrence, similar patterns have been seen in past years. For example, in August 2023, Bitcoin dropped below its BMSB, stayed there for a few weeks, and then had a strong rally in Q4.
We talked a lot about the idea of a #BTC summer lull well in advance. Now that it has happened, what comes next?
I think what happens in Q4 2024 depends on if #BTC can get back above its bull market support band in the next few weeks, or if it holds resistance.
A thread 👇
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) July 7, 2024
In 2013, Bitcoin hit a low in early July but quickly bounced back above the 21-week EMA, leading to a big rally in Q4. However, in 2019, Bitcoin started to decline in the summer and fell below the BMSB after the Federal Reserve cut rates, which led to more drops in Q4.
Cowen also mentions that Bitcoin’s return on investment after the 2016 halving looks similar to now, which might mean we see similar patterns this time. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in Q4 of the post-halving year, which for the current cycle would be 2025.
Key Factors to Watch Out For
There are several key factors to watch that will influence Bitcoin’s next moves. One is whether Bitcoin can climb back above its bull market support band (BMSB), which is a critical level for determining its trend.
Another factor is the Federal Reserve’s policies, especially changes in interest rates, which can impact the market significantly. Additionally, market sentiment, reflected in investor confidence and trading volumes, will play a crucial role.
Finally, Ethereum’s performance, particularly the ETH/BTC ratio, is important as it has shown patterns similar to past cycles.
What Could Happen in Q4 2024?
Meanwhile, Cowen thinks Bitcoin’s fate in Q4 2024 depends on whether it can get back above its BMSB. If it follows the patterns of 2013, 2016, and 2023, we could see a strong recovery and rally. But if it mirrors 2019, Bitcoin might continue to struggle.
