Polymarket took a massive hit as Trump’s betting odds sank after a whale investor offloaded $3 million in Trump shares.
This dump came right after GCR, a high-profile crypto advisor, tweeted about taking profits on his Trump bets, sparking a frenzy among traders. Within minutes of his tweet, the account ‘larpas’ started unloading Trump shares, dragging down Trump’s odds by 4% before they rebounded slightly to 58.1%.
GCR’s comments struck at the heart of the speculation machine that’s been driving Trump’s odds on Polymarket, especially as Election Day looms closer.
The tweet triggered a wave of reactions on Crypto Twitter (CT), where some joked about holding leveraged Trump positions based on his “prophecies.” One response read, “Not even kidding, my entire port is 5x leverage long TRUMP on the GCR prophecy. Asking for refunds in DMs if I get liquidated.”
In his typical fashion, GCR advised against leverage, calling it “reckless gambling.” He underscored the importance of probabilistic thinking and advised traders to avoid reckless plays, a sentiment he’s pushed repeatedly.
Inside GCR’s Trump bet strategy
GCR’s prediction on Trump’s odds has been a multi-year bet on both the former president and the dynamics of Republican politics. Back in 2021, GCR argued that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was just a “paper tiger,” convinced that Trump was the real frontrunner for the Republican nomination with odds above 95%.
GCR viewed Trump’s odds as severely underpriced, especially in a prediction market that he claimed leaned right-wing, a trend he saw even back in 2020.
According to him, Polymarket’s odds for Trump were so misaligned that he piled in on shares when Trump’s implied chances were under 10%, expecting them to rise to 65% or higher if his call on DeSantis proved accurate.
When his projections hit, GCR cashed out, saying he was “satisfied” with the gains and leaving the market to see how it all unfolds in 2024.
Even as the odds briefly recovered 2%, the sell-off raised eyebrows and fueled further speculation about Trump’s odds, which some investors had been riding on sheer confidence alone.
The man behind the $30 million Trump bet
The account behind the biggest Trump bets on Polymarket belongs to a man fake-named Théo, who has allegedly invested over $30 million in Trump’s victory. Théo, a French national with a banking background, insisted to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that he wasn’t out to manipulate the election.
“My intent is just making money,” Théo said, identifying himself as a former U.S. resident with a knack for high-stakes trading. His Polymarket positions on Trump have drawn major scrutiny, especially since WSJ discovered that four accounts were systematically buying up Trump shares, driving up Trump’s odds of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris.
Polymarket, a New York-based platform, confirmed last week that it had reached out to Théo to discuss his Trump bets as part of an ongoing investigation. They described him as a trader with “extensive trading experience and a financial-services background.”
Théo also confirmed he spoke with Polymarket’s legal team, who probed his trades for any potential market manipulation. According to Polymarket, Théo’s trades reflect his personal conviction, driven by his views on the election, not any underlying political motives.
He said that his bets stemmed from his belief that polling data has repeatedly underestimated Trump’s base since 2016. He’s betting that this trend will continue in 2024, predicting an upset in favor of Trump.
The whale effect on prediction markets
With all eyes on the Trump whale, Polymarket’s structure as a relatively small prediction market becomes evident. Despite massive increases in volume this year, the market remains small enough for a single trader like Théo to shift odds with multimillion-dollar wagers.
Although Théo was funding his Trump bets himself, the Journal could not confirm all details of his story, and his claims about having “absolutely no political agenda” remain unverified.
Théo’s bets include millions on Trump winning not only the Electoral College but also the popular vote, a scenario deemed unlikely by most experts. He’s also targeting key swing states, with major bets on Trump winning in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
If he’s right, Théo could rake in over $80 million—double his initial investment. However, if Harris wins, Théo stands to lose his entire $30 million bet, which he says is the bulk of his liquid assets.
A veteran investor with tens of millions to risk, Théo told the Journal that he went quiet at first, placing initial bets under the account ‘Fredi9999’ back in August. At the time, Trump and Harris were neck and neck on Polymarket.
As his bets increased, he noticed traders were avoiding price quotes whenever ‘Fredi9999’ appeared. To dodge attention and avoid spiking prices, he spread his purchases over multiple accounts in September and October, creating ‘Theo4’ and other accounts to conceal his true position.
Théo has expressed skepticism about polling adjustments made since 2016 and 2020. He pointed to the “shy Trump voter effect,” where people hide their support for Trump, influencing polling inaccuracies. “I know a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump without telling you that,” he claimed.
He dismisses adjustments by mainstream pollsters as ineffective, saying he hasn’t seen any “substantial” improvements. Over a series of emails, Théo criticized what he called the mainstream-media bias toward Harris. He claims these outlets are laying the groundwork for post-election chaos by pushing a narrative of a close race.
