The global economy is a tangled disaster right now. At the center of it all is de-dollarization, Russia, and the very real possibility of Trump returning to the White House.
Picture this: a world no longer bowing to the U.S. dollar. That’s what’s on the line as countries from Russia to China to an entire coalition of Southeast Asian nations start peeling away from America’s currency dominance.
Trump 2.0? He’s all set to launch tariffs and restrictions like never before if these countries keep trading in their own money. This setup has huge implications, not only for America and its financial empire but also for global inflation, debt, and—let’s face it—who calls the shots in global finance.
Taking the dollar down a notch
Russia’s leading the charge. As soon as sanctions started raining down on them after their moves in Ukraine, they took one look at the dollar and said, “Yeah, we’re done with that.” Now Russia and China are making almost all of their payments to each other in their own currencies now—over 90% of them, in fact.
The entire BRICS are stepping up, pushing for a world where the dollar doesn’t call the shots. Their strategy? Creating a financial playground without a dollar referee.
BRICS talks are all about devising a common currency, maybe even one backed by something solid like gold or commodities. It’s about security, really. No more one-country control over everyone else’s money supply. And if this pans out, it could rewrite the rules of global trade.
Now Trump is watching all this, and let’s just say he’s ready to go full throttle with his America First plan. He’s all about keeping the dollar where he believes it belongs, no matter the cost to trade relationships or international diplomacy.
Trump’s economic playbook: Tariffs, sanctions, and a few new tricks
Inside Trump’s circle, there’s a serious game plan taking shape. His advisors are looking straight at alternatives like China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and Russia’s Financial Messaging System (SPFS). These systems, built specifically to work around SWIFT and the dollar, have put Trump’s advisors on high alert.
According to people close to his team, they’re exploring every angle to keep other currencies from creeping into the spotlight, and they won’t hesitate to punish any financial institution that sides with this new de-dollarization trend.
This could go deeper, too. The U.S. might see some backlash in its own markets. For one, if the demand for dollars drops, those dollars start flooding back home, putting inflation on the rise. Debt? The cost of paying it back could spike if no one’s lining up to buy U.S. Treasury bonds anymore.
Economists are already sounding the alarm about what happens if everyone starts bailing on the dollar. And with Trump’s aggressive stance, that fear isn’t going away anytime soon.
Right now, Fox News is reporting Trump leading with 230 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’s 179. Major Democratic media supporters like The New York Times are even betting on Trump, giving him an 88% chance of taking this election.
Analysts at the Times are saying Harris would need a complete sweep in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to have a shot, but Trump’s looking solid there, too.
It’s a twist that has Wall Street scrambling. Emerging-market currencies? They’re tanking. A lot of traders are grabbing dollars just in case Trump wins. In fact, a developing-nation currency gauge has dropped by 0.6% already, led by a 2.5% fall in the Mexican peso—the peso’s at its lowest in two years now.
That’s what a Trump win could do. Meanwhile, Chinese markets had eased up a bit, hoping for a close race, but now? They’re feeling the pressure, big time.
The offshore yuan took a 1% dive against the dollar today, its biggest drop in over a year. Hong Kong stocks nosedived, with a Hang Seng gauge dropping over 3%, even as mainland stocks stayed somewhat stable with hopes of a stimulus bump.
China’s central bank is pushing to stabilize the yuan, stepping in with a massive dollar sell-off onshore to keep things steady. And if Trump’s trade policies kick in, Chinese officials are going to be in overdrive, with state banks propping up the yuan in local markets and the central bank fine-tuning the daily exchange rate to keep the currency steady.
There’s talk that Beijing might even let the yuan slide to give their exports a boost if Trump imposes higher tariffs, but many believe they’ll keep a tight grip on the yuan to manage volatility.
Putin and Trump
Now let’s talk about the real elephant in the room. Vladimir Putin and his Russia. The man isn’t holding his breath for Trump to be his hero. Their relationship is complicated to say the very least, and Moscow’s long past putting faith in anyone’s promises — especially Trump’s.
Eight years ago, when he first took office, Moscow toasted his win, hoping he’d ease the sanctions that have weighed heavily since their annexation of Crimea. But Trump didn’t deliver. He had a soft spot for Putin, sure, but when it came to action? Russia didn’t get what it wanted.
Fast-forward to today, and Moscow’s keeping its hopes low. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s Security Council deputy chair, posted on Telegram that he doesn’t expect the election to do Russia any favors. “The election won’t change anything for Russia,” he wrote, saying that both U.S. candidates represent the same “consensus” that Russia should be “defeated.”
Medvedev threw some serious shade on Trump’s claims about his good relationship with Russia, calling it “banalities” and suggesting that if Trump even tried to pull Russia out of the war, he’d be “the new JFK.”
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov isn’t buying into the Trump hype either. “Whoever wins the election, we see no prospect of America changing its Russophobic course,” he said earlier.
And Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was pissed when Trump recently claimed he was close to a nuclear disarmament deal with Russia and China during his first term. “No, this does not correspond to reality,” Ryabkov fired back.
Then there’s Kamala Harris, who managed to grab Putin’s endorsement prank. Once Biden dropped out, Putin jabbed that he’d follow Biden’s advice and “support” Harris.
