On Sunday, July 26, Michael Saylor posted Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase chart to X. The caption said, “We’re gonna need another color.” It was his fifth such post since the company’s last disclosed Bitcoin purchase on June 22.
MSTR trades as a leveraged proxy for Saylor’s Bitcoin buying, and dozens of treasury companies copied his model. For the first time in two years, Strategy has gone four weeks without adding a single coin to its portfolio.
Saylor’s Sunday chart stops signaling Monday Bitcoin buys
For years, a Sunday night Saylor chart was a reliable predictor of an 8-K filing on Monday. That filing would reveal another tranche of Bitcoin. The signal has been weakening lately. He posted on June 28, “We’re gonna need more charts,” but it was a new capital framework. And then there was the July 5 post right before the largest Bitcoin sale Strategy had ever done.
Saylor floated “green dots” in late November, a day before Strategy announced a $1.44 billion dollar reserve with a 130 $BTC buy. On January 4, he posted a hint for whether coins or cash were coming, asking followers, “Orange or Green?”
The Sunday post drew a lot of engagement with more than 11,000 likes and over 1,400 replies. Saylor, however, never explained the caption, and the company confirmed no transaction took place.
Strategy’s market value against its Bitcoin, enterprise mNAV, fell below 1 on June 27. MSTR is trading at a discount to the value of the coins it holds. Selling shares to buy more Bitcoin doesn’t grow Bitcoin per share anymore, it shrinks it. Meanwhile, the preferred stock dividends of Strategy, with STRC lifted to a 12% rate, have to be paid in cash.
We’re gonna need another color. pic.twitter.com/AqZO5UeXDx
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) July 26, 2026
Strategy has 113 buys totaling 843,775 $BTC, paid for at an average of $75,476 per coin for $63.69 billion. That stack is worth about $55.1 billion with Bitcoin at $65,283.96, leaving the position about $8.6 billion underwater.
The late-June capital framework created new exits for cash. It approved a $1 billion digital credit securities buyback, a $1 billion common stock buyback, and a program of as much as $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales. On July 23, Strategy changed the way it calculates mNAV and warned that figures prior to that date are no longer comparable. Shares of MSTR closed at $91.67 on Friday, down from $94.85 a week ago.
Strategy sends cash to reserves
Strategy is still in the process of raising capital. It’s just parking the proceeds now. The company sold 2,732,318 MSTR shares for net proceeds of $263.5 million in the period July 13 to July 19 and did not purchase any Bitcoin. Its SEC filing of July 20 put the new dollar reserve at $3.225 billion. The reserve now covers ~1.8 years of dividend commitments.
The room to keep raising isn’t the constraint. Strategy can continue to sell up to $23.53 billion of additional common stock under its existing at-the-market programs. But the pause is a choice, not a dry well.
The pause comes after a warning Strategy received in June. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has urged the company to stop buying Bitcoin and rebuild its cash buffer, Cryptopolitan reported on June 24. Reserves dropped about 38% from early 2026.
Moreno said Strategy’s dividend obligations ballooned about fourfold in six months to $1.2 billion, and dividend coverage collapsed from more than seven years to about 14 months.
“Buying whenever capital is available is not a strategy,” he said, calling that “a formula for accumulating at cycle peaks.” Instead, he suggested a model-based approach to time future purchases.
The next hard data point is Thursday, July 30, when Strategy reports second-quarter results after the U.S. market closes that day.
