S&P Dow Jones Indices has declined to add Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) to its S&P 500 index again. Instead of MSTR, the world’s most prestigious stock index chose SanDisk to replace Interpublic Group.
Although its US Index Committee doesn’t normally explain its decisions, the mid-quarter announcement was curious. The decision didn’t coincide with the committee’s quarterly cadence and only included a single stock change.
Normally, quarterly rebalancing announcements occur during the final month of each calendar quarter, and include multiple companies joining and exiting the index simultaneously.
MSTR satisfies most S&P 500 Index criteria
The S&P 500 establishes technical criteria for inclusion, and founder Michael Saylor has ensured that Strategy’s MSTR common stock satisfies every metric.
Nonetheless, the committee has declined to add MSTR for months.
As a qualifying candidate, Strategy has a US domicile, derives the majority of its revenue domestically, trades on the NASDAQ (NYSE or CBOE would also qualify), has a market capitalization in the 85th percentile of the S&P Total Market Index, had positive GAAP earnings in its most recent quarter, traded a minimum of 250,000 shares in its prior six months, and had a sum of positive GAAP earnings for its four most recent quarters.
Despite meeting all of these quantitative criteria earlier this year, Strategy management speculated as to possible reasons for the index committee’s denials.
First of all, most companies don’t gain immediate inclusion after they first satisfy all of the quantitative benchmarks. The S&P US Index Committee normally waits a few quarters to add them.
Indeed, even Tesla and many other household names, despite their prominence, had to wait several quarters before they joined the S&P 500.
Read more: Why the S&P 500 committee could deny MSTR inclusion on Friday
More possible reasons for S&P 500 delays
MSTR hasn’t been performing particularly well this year. Its stock price is 39% lower today than at the start of 2025, and its recent performance has been particularly bearish.
After a 12-month slide, its market cap is now lower than the value of its bitcoin (BTC) holdings.
In addition, Strategy CEO Phong Le admitted that Strategy’s heavy reliance on BTC as an asset is problematic for S&P 500 inclusion. Although holding large amounts of BTC doesn’t preclude approval, 10-Q reports and other SEC filings for Strategy are considerably different from other companies.
With over $48 billion in BTC purchases, Strategy tallies billions of dollars of unrealized gains as a peculiar type of asset that almost no other S&P 500 constituent possesses.
Although the filings comply with modern accounting rules, they are non-standard and might be a reason for the S&P US Index Committee’s slow review of Strategy’s application to join their index.
Finally, the committee is ultimately free to use discretion in determining additions and removals. Committee members are anonymous and don’t customarily explain their decisions.
They might evaluate long-term stability in a stock’s performance, creditworthiness to pay dividends and bond coupons, or other squishy metrics that are difficult to infer from public reporting about their closed door meetings.
Although S&P Dow Jones Indices may reschedule its Q4 announcement for any date, its customary quarterly decisions are likely to occur after market close on December 5. MSTR remains a qualifying candidate for possible inclusion.
On Kalshi, a binary options gambling website, traders are accepting bets at 8% odds that MSTR will join the S&P 500 Index this year.
