The U.S.’s Republican Party seems set to keep control of the House of Representatives, completing its trifecta after flipping the Senate and White House in the 2024 election cycle.
As of press time, the AP had called 409 (out of 435) seats, with Democrats winning 199 seats to the Republicans’ 210. The first party to reach 218 seats will win the majority, and as of Thursday evening, Republicans appeared to be within reach of that goal — confirming odds on betting site Polymarket, where traders gave Republicans at least 51% odds and growing starting at 8:00 p.m. EST Tuesday night. As of press time, bettors gave Republicans a 98.5% chance of winning the House.
As of 6:30 p.m. EST Thursday, Republicans led in at least 14 races, out of the 27 remaining, according to AP results, meaning if these results hold, they’ll have the majority for at least another two years.
In Alaska, Republican Nick Begich held a roughly 10,000-vote lead against Democrat Mary Peltola — who received backing from the crypto-aligned Fairshake super PAC — with 76% of votes counted.
In Arizona, David Schweikert, a longtime Congressman who co-founded the Congressional Blockchain Caucus, held a roughly 10,000-vote lead with just under 70% of the total votes counted. Republican Eli Crane also held a slim lead.
Democrat Greg Stanton held a much larger lead against his Republican opponent in the race for another of Arizona’s House seats, while Juan Ciscomani — who also enjoyed Fairshake backing — trailed very narrowly with 70% of votes reported.
In Iowa, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks held a 0.2% lead against Democrat Christina Bohannan, suggesting the race could go to a recount.
In Nebraska, Republican Don Bacon held a somewhat larger margin, leading by 3% of the votes with 95% of the total votes counted.
In Washington, Republican Dan Newhouse appears set to win against a fellow Republican, meaning this race will not benefit the Democrats at all. That brings Republicans to 217 seats.
If these results hold, Democrats would need to sweep their races in California, which has 12 races yet to be called by the AP, as well as win in the other districts they’re leading, to regain the House. Republicans are leading in seven of these races at press time, though some races have just over 52% of their results counted.
Fairshake-backed Republican candidates in California include David Valadao (leading by 10% and 56% counted), Michael Garcia (leading by just over 2% and 69% counted), Young Kim (leading by 13% and 71% counted) and Michelle Steel (leading by just over 4% and 70% counted).
Republicans Ken Calvert (just under 3% lead with 76% reporting), John Duarte (just under a 3% lead with 52% reporting) and Scott Baugh (0.4% lead with 73% reporting) are also in the lead in their races.
While it is entirely possible some of these races flip by the time all votes are counted, as of press time Republicans look set to hold 224 seats, a two-seat improvement over the 118th Congress.
On Polymarket, bettors gave this outcome an 86% chance as of press time, up from around 20% when polls began to close on Tuesday night. The scenario in which Republicans hold 215 to 219 seats has the second-greatest chance, at 21%.
