Ethereum trades at $2,323 on April 29, up 1.48%, pushing toward the 100-day EMA at $2,349 as Polymarket traders give 62% odds the current session closes above $2,350, with the rising wedge on the daily chart tightening toward a resolution that the derivatives market is actively positioning around.
$ETH Daily Chart: Rising Wedge Presses Into The 100-Day EMA
$ETH has been building a rising wedge since the January low near $1,800, with the lower boundary rising from that base and the upper boundary capping rallies since late March. Price at $2,323 is pressing against the upper boundary of the wedge and the 100-day EMA at $2,349 simultaneously, the tightest the pattern has been since it formed.
The Supertrend at $2,084 flipped bullish in early April and has been rising below price through the entire recovery. The 20-day EMA at $2,296 and 50-day at $2,246 are both below current price and stacked bullishly. The 100-day at $2,349 is the level price has not closed above since November 2025. A daily close above it breaks both the wedge resistance and the EMA barrier in one move.
Related: $XRP Price Prediction: $XRP Consolidates at a Decision Zone With Focus on $1.44 Breakout
Rising wedges typically resolve to the downside, but the EMA stack below price and the bullish Supertrend give the upside case more near-term weight. The 200-day EMA at $2,618 is the larger target if the 100-day gives way.
Key levels for April 30:
- Supertrend support: $2,084
- 50-day EMA: $2,246
- 20-day EMA: $2,296
- Current price: $2,323
- 100-day EMA resistance: $2,349
- Wedge upper boundary: $2,349
- 200-day EMA: $2,618
Polymarket Has A Strong Opinion On Where $ETH Goes This Week
Two active Polymarket markets are pricing $ETH right now. On the April 29 question, traders give 62% odds $ETH hits $2,350 today, with $2,300 at 51% and $2,400 at 11%. The $2,350 level is 62% consensus with 18 hours left in the session, and current price at $2,323 puts that target just 26 points away.
The April 27 to May 3 weekly market shows $2,500 at 15% probability, $2,200 at 26% as the most-traded downside level with $14,037 in volume, and $2,600 at just 4%. The market is pricing a range roughly between $2,200 and $2,500 for the week, with the balance of probability sitting below $2,500 rather than above it. The 26% consensus on $2,200 is the most volume-weighted downside target traders are actively betting on.
Related: Chainlink (LINK) Price Prediction: Bulls Defend $9 as Momentum Weakens
$ETH Derivatives: Shorts Taking More Pain As Options Activity Surges
Futures volume rose 5.03% to $39.05B while OI climbed 1.42% to $31.68B, both up together pointing to fresh positioning entering the market. Options volume jumped 35.14% to $979.03M with options OI up 2.78% to $6.55B, the largest single-session options activity in weeks, reflecting traders hedging aggressively around the $2,349 resistance level ahead of month-end.
The long/short ratio sits at 1.0321, barely long. Binance top traders lean long at 1.2925 on accounts and 1.1673 on positions, OKX at 1.36. Over 24 hours, shorts absorbed $37.96M in liquidations against $23.58M for longs. Sellers are taking more pain despite price being below the key resistance, consistent with shorts getting squeezed on the push toward $2,349. Current OI at $30.79B sits well below the late 2025 peak near $70B, leaving room for leverage to build if the 100-day EMA breaks.
$ETH Price Prediction: April 30 Outlook
- Upside: $ETH closes above the 100-day EMA at $2,349, breaking the wedge resistance and the EMA barrier together. Polymarket’s 62% consensus on $2,350 today and the short squeeze already underway give the move two independent tailwinds. A daily close above $2,349 puts $2,500 in view, the next Polymarket level with meaningful probability for the week.
- Downside: The 100-day EMA holds and $ETH fades back toward the 20-day at $2,296. Polymarket’s 26% consensus on $2,200 as the week’s downside scenario becomes the target if the wedge breaks lower as the pattern suggests it should. The Supertrend at $2,084 is the level that would need to hold to keep the broader recovery intact.
Related: Solana Price Prediction: Analyst Flags 10% SOL Move At Triangle Apex As Quantum Protection Sits Ready
