After experiencing sharp corrections in June, Bitcoin fell below $60,000. Having recovered from lows of around $57,000, $BTC rose to levels around $64,000 but is currently trading around $62,500.
While the answers to questions like “Has Bitcoin bottomed out? When will the bottom come? Will there be further declines?” remain uncertain, Glassnode, an on-chain data analytics company, has released an updated analysis that addresses these questions.
Glassnode, in its weekly “The Week On-Chain” report, stated that Bitcoin is in a deep value zone but still lacks confirmation signals of a bottom.
Bitcoin in Deep Value Zone!
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has been trading below two key averages for about five months.
Accordingly, $BTC has been trading below the Real Market Average of $76,600 and the cost floor for short-term holders of $72,200 for approximately five months. Analysts believe this keeps Bitcoin in a deep value zone, indicating that a confirmed bottom has not yet formed.
In other words, the data suggests that Bitcoin is in a region suitable for bottom formation, but a sustained recovery has not yet begun.
One of the key findings in the report is the impact of long-term investor (LTH) sell-offs on the market. Glassnode analysts found that these sell-offs accounted for approximately 43 percent of total sell-offs and profits in the market.
In this context, analysts note that a gradual decrease in loss-taking by long-term investors could be a positive development for Bitcoin.
Corporate Demand is Improving, But There’s No Strong Turnaround!
Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, the main driver of the recent Bitcoin bull run, have decreased from $193 million per day to $88.9 million. While outflows have slowed, net outflows and a negative trend still persist.
Daily ETF trading volume ranges between $650 million and $950 million, with analysts noting that this figure is approximately 80% below the October 2025 peak. This indicates that institutional investor interest, which initiated the bull run, has not yet strongly recovered.
Cautious Optimism in the Options Market!
Analysts note that, according to the data, investors in derivative markets have begun to take slightly positive positions. The put/call ratio in the options market has fallen to 0.56, its lowest level since 2026. This indicates a decrease in demand for short positions. However, the fact that the Bitcoin price is trading below the “maximum pain” level, where investors in the options market would face the highest possible loss, suggests that a cautious approach continues in the market.
Result: Bottoming Signals Present, But No Confirmation!
Glassnode concludes that, when the current situation is viewed from different angles, there are signs that Bitcoin is approaching the final stages of its bear cycle.
However, according to Glassnode, while Bitcoin has the necessary groundwork for a bottom formation at current levels, strong signals indicating the start of a new uptrend have not yet emerged.
For bottom confirmation and a sustained recovery, “improvement in investor confidence, further reduction in selling pressure from long-term investors, stabilization of spot ETF inflows, and $BTC price rising above and maintaining its level compared to the true market average” are needed.
*This is not investment advice.
