Ethereum rebounds 95% in a month — is this the start of a $10,000 cycle or just a technical squeeze?

Ethereum price prediction is turning bullish after a 95% rebound, but can ETH really hold above $2,600, or is this just post-truce momentum?

Ethereum finally back in play

Ethereum (ETH) is making a quiet but strong recovery. After weeks of staying relatively muted, the second-largest crypto by market cap has climbed more than 6% in the past 24 hours and is now trading around $2,613 as of May 14.

Over the past week, ETH has gained 44%, briefly touching $2,736 on May 13, its highest level since late February.

Just a month ago, ETH was trading near $1,336 on Apr. 9. That low came during heightened concerns over U.S.-induced trade wars, which had rattled broader markets.

Since then, Ethereum has rebounded nearly 95%, supported by easing macro uncertainty and a growing sense of optimism about its long-term role in the digital economy.

On Tuesday, the latest U.S. inflation report showed consumer prices rising just 0.2% month over month in April. Annual inflation stood at 2.3%, only slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target. Market sentiment has also improved following the 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China.

Ethereum is also gaining strength from within its own ecosystem. The recent Pectra upgrade introduced performance improvements aimed at enhancing network efficiency and transaction speed.

The upgrade went live when ETH was priced near $1,700, and its rollout has aligned with the broader price recovery, reinforcing market confidence in Ethereum’s future scalability.

The pace of the rally so far has been measured. Trading volumes are building steadily, and there is little indication of speculative excess or leveraged positioning.

Let’s see how the latest developments are affecting Ethereum price prediction.

Bernstein’s thesis and ETH’s shifting role

According to a client note by research and brokerage firm Bernstein, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, Ethereum’s bounce is being driven by three overlapping forces that mark a departure from its previously lagging performance.

Until recently, Ethereum had been underperforming both Bitcoin (BTC) and faster layer 1 competitors. The ETH to BTC ratio dropped by around 45% over the past year, as investors favored Bitcoin for its perceived store-of-value role, especially following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

At the same time, retail attention shifted toward newer chains offering lower fees and faster transactions. In Bernstein’s view, Ethereum found itself stuck in the middle. It was no longer the fastest platform for everyday users, nor did it command the same level of institutional confidence as Bitcoin.

That context is now beginning to change. Bernstein notes that Ethereum is starting to benefit from increased focus on stablecoin usage, real-world asset tokenization, and the maturation of layer 2 networks.

Stablecoins and tokenized securities are gaining meaningful traction as tools for payments and settlement. Ethereum hosts more than half of the total stablecoin supply, positioning it as a natural settlement layer for these transactions.

Real-world tokenization, now valued at over $22 billion according to RWA.xyz, is also centered around Ethereum, with firms like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton leading deployment efforts.

The second major driver comes from Ethereum’s layer 2 ecosystem. While some have questioned whether these networks directly benefit Ethereum, Bernstein points out that several institutional-grade applications are beginning to emerge.

Coinbase-backed Base, for instance, generated $84 million in revenue last year. These layer 2 platforms still rely on ETH for settlement and gas, reinforcing the asset’s underlying economic utility.

Robinhood’s acquisition of WonderFi, which operates a layer 2 network, suggests a potential path where brokers may begin launching tokenized equities on Ethereum-compatible infrastructure.

The third factor is more market-driven. Over the past year, many hedge funds used ETH as a hedge within their portfolios, shorting it while remaining long on other assets such as Bitcoin or Solana (SOL), creating consistent downward pressure on ETH relative to the broader market.

As the Ethereum narrative begins to align more closely with real-world adoption trends, many of those short positions are being closed. Bernstein sees this unwind as one of the forces contributing to ETH’s recent outperformance.

Taken together, these factors suggest that Ethereum’s rise is being fueled not only by shifting sentiment, but also by deeper structural changes in how the network is used and valued.

Upgrades, blobs, and long-term roadmap

Ethereum is entering a new phase of development, marked by a renewed push toward scalability and real-world usability. The shift began with the rollout of Pectra, the network’s most important upgrade since the Merge in 2022.

Key improvements introduced in Pectra include a doubling of blob capacity for layer 2 networks, which helps reduce congestion and lower transaction fees.

The upgrade also enables Account Abstraction, allowing users to pay gas fees in stablecoins such as Dai (DAI) and USD Coin (USDC).

Another major change involves increasing the maximum validator stake from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, making node operations more efficient for institutional participants.

With Pectra now live, developer attention has moved to Fusaka, Ethereum’s next major protocol upgrade, which is expected by the end of 2025.

A central feature of Fusaka is Peer Data Availability Sampling, or PeerDAS. The proposal aims to help ETH manage larger volumes of off-chain data while preserving network security and performance.

PeerDAS builds on the concept of blob data, introduced during the earlier Dencun upgrade. Blobs are temporary data chunks stored outside the Ethereum mainnet and are increasingly used by layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum (ARB), Optimism (OP), and Base.

These networks improve efficiency by processing transactions off-chain while continuing to use ETH for final settlement and security. Relying on blobs allows them to operate at lower cost and higher speed without overloading the base layer.

PeerDAS enhances this system by allowing validators to check only small samples of blob data rather than full data sets. The change improves bandwidth efficiency and supports a higher transaction load without compromising decentralization or speed.

Reducing the burden on validators while maintaining network performance could make it easier for developers and institutions to deploy complex applications at scale.

Despite these advances, Ethereum’s upgrade timeline remains a point of concern. The network has a history of delays, often caused by extensive testing and the challenges of coordinating a decentralized developer ecosystem.

Pectra, originally targeted for late 2024, faced multiple postponements before going live in May 2025. Similar uncertainty now surrounds Fusaka, with much of the community watching closely to see whether it will remain on schedule.

At the same time, alternative blockchains are attracting attention through faster release cycles and simpler governance models. The contrast has sparked ongoing debate about the Ethereum Foundation’s role and the network’s ability to adapt with greater agility.

Ethereum price prediction and technical signals

Ethereum’s rally over the past week has surfaced several key signals pointing to a shift in sentiment, although some caution remains.

Daan Crypto Trades highlights the unusually large weekly candle, which he attributes to the unwinding of accumulated short positions built up over recent months.

In his view, such moves can distort near-term price signals. He recommends watching how the next few weeks unfold to assess whether actual demand follows, implying that the recent momentum may be partly mechanical and could fade as positioning resets.

Michaël van de Poppe takes a broader perspective, noting that the ETH to BTC ratio has climbed approximately 40% from its recent low. He sees this as a sign of changing capital rotation, with Ethereum beginning to recover after a long stretch of underperformance.

At the same time, he warns that 20% to 30% corrections are normal during strong trends and should be treated as expected volatility rather than early signs of weakness.

From a technical standpoint, some analysts are watching for potential gaps. According to Titan of Crypto, ETH recently filled a major Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap between $2,540 and $2,620.

The next unfilled gap lies in the $2,890 to $3,230 zone. While CME gaps have historically shown a tendency to close over time, they do not always fill immediately. These levels may act as demand zones if upward momentum persists.

VirtualBacon, another market analyst, argues that ETH’s earlier underperformance led to a period of mispricing. His base case suggests ETH could reach $10,000 if Bitcoin climbs to $200,000 and the ETH to BTC ratio returns to 0.05.

A move toward $12,000 is also possible under more aggressive conditions, including BTC rising to $250,000 or ETH to BTC touching 0.06.

Some institutional forecasts support similar expectations. In a previous analysis, asset manager VanEck projected that ETH could rise above $6,000 in 2025.

Whether these Ethereum price predictions materialize will depend on broader market sentiment and how quickly investor focus shifts from speculation to real-world utility.

As always, caution remains essential, and always remember the golden rule: never invest more than you can afford to lose.