Benjamin Cowen, a leading analyst in the cryptocurrency market, analyzed recent technical charts and macroeconomic developments affecting Ethereum ($ETH). He highlighted Ethereum’s recent strong rebound, sharing his insights on potential market bottoms and the critical risks facing the crypto asset in the coming period.
Cowen, analyzing Ethereum’s price structure through regression channels and fair value models, stated that the asset reacted from its lows around the $1,500 level. Recalling that similar instances of touching the lower boundary of the regression band have occurred in past cycles, the analyst indicated that the current fair value zone for Ethereum lies between $2,300 and $2,400. However, he added that for the price to sustain its upward momentum, it needs to decisively break above critical technical resistance levels such as the 200-day moving average.
Beyond Ethereum’s individual performance, the analysis specifically highlighted the $ETH/BTC pair, demonstrating its strength against Bitcoin. Cowen stated that the pair breaking above its 20-month moving average is a crucial technical signal, and that this level needs to be sustained. Referring to past false breakouts, the expert said that for the rally to be confirmed, Ethereum must maintain its gains against Bitcoin for the next 1-2 months.
Cowen also touched upon the impact of macroeconomic risks on the crypto market, stating that a potential correction in the S&P 500 index would directly affect the price of Ethereum. While a 10% pullback in the stock market index might be limited to a higher bottom formation in Ethereum, the analyst warned investors that a deeper 20% decline could trigger sharp pullbacks exceeding 50% in $ETH. Highlighting the second half of the year, particularly the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter, Cowen indicated that a negative signal from the macroeconomic front could lead to one final wave of decline in the crypto market.
*This is not investment advice.
